Tony Yates's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Birmingham
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Labour Markets and Monetary Policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think the costs of being wrong about this and realising that inflationary pressure was in fact building and monetary policy was too weak are less than the costs of erring on the side of tighter policy. The latter could mean a greatly prolonged period back at the effective lower bound to interest rates.

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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It depends on what is causing the strong labour market. Positive supply side shocks can mean strong labour market quantities without inflationary pressure. The Phillips curve is really just a bivariate correlation. The modern equivalent embedded say in a many variable DSGE model can quite easily generate fluctuating Philips Correlations, as the mix of shocks changes.

Bitcoin and the City

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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think the existing regulations governing financial intermediaries give the authorities the scope they need to monitor investments in these assets, which obviously should be deemed highly risky, with potentially no value whatsoever in the event of a crisis.

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Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The crypto currency market is much too small at the moment, and banks/investment banks are not much involved in it as yet. I doubt the situation would change much in two years. Perhaps in 10.

Happiness and well-being as objectives of macro policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that quantitative well-being analysis should play an important role in guiding policy makers in determining macroeconomic policies?

 
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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think the study of well being is an interesting field, and perhaps useful for assessing the quality of delivery of key public services like health and social care, where one can measure well being for an individual before and afterward. But I don't feel that the measures are instructive enough to be targets for macro policy instruments.

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