Tony Yates's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Birmingham
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Happiness and well-being as objectives of macro policy

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Question 1: Do you agree that subjective well-being measures, or at least some of the subindices from the typical survey measures, are now reliable enough to give useful insights when used in macroeconomic empirical analysis?

 
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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
They are interesting enough to give us insights into how they relate to macro measures, but not yet, in my view, useful for policy analysis. In other words, I would not yet want to invite policy makers to put any weight on these measures as against stabilising resource utilization conventionally measured.

A “new” UK industrial strategy ?

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Question 2: Do you agree that the UK needs a new regional policy?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Agree in two respects. First that regional policy should emerge from a kind of social insurance, in that market incompleteness and social justice demand that we don't force individuals to bear all the costs of volatilty in the regional distribution of jobs and income. And second, that there can be coordination and network effects in whether a region is prosperous or not [see literature on Chicago, and clusters] which government policy instruments may be able to affect.

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Question 1: Do you agree that the UK needs a new industrial policy?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The only sense in which I agree is that I worry that the edifice of regional funds, and discretion over business rates means that we have a non-neutral industrial policy already, which I'm against, for conventional reasons. Would prefer limited state capacity and resources to be directed towards providing public goods better and more efficiently, including, relevant here, vocational education and regional infrastructure.

National Living Wage and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that the new NLW will have a muted effect on wages and prices?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

Brexit and financial market volatility

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Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
All the uncertainties and news flows that I itemised above will affect not just the exchange rate, but likely the value of the FTSE, the term structure, and general levels of confidence in the economy. It's likely this process has already begun, though we can't see the transmission yet beyond asset markets themselves, and it should be noted that so far stocks have held up relatively well since the referendum date was announced.

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