Ugo Panizza's picture
Affiliation: 
The Graduate Institute, Geneva (HEID)
Credentials: 
Pictet Chair and Professor of Economics

Voting history

Wages and economic recoveries

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Question 2: Do you agree that the different behaviour of UK real wages relative to Eurozone wages during the Great Recession is in large part due to the UK having different labour market policies?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Don't know enought about the UK, but I suspect that above traget inflation was more important than labor market flexibility

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Question 1: Do you agree that lower real wage growth was beneficial for employment levels during the Great Recession?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It depends on the nature of the shock and on the degree of openness of the economy.

Happiness and well-being as objectives of macro policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that quantitative well-being analysis should play an important role in guiding policy makers in determining macroeconomic policies?

 
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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I am worried about a variation of "Goodhart's law" (When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure). As mentioned in the text, measures of subjective well-being have become better and better with time. However, such indicators they are easier to manipulate than standard macro variables (such as GDP, unemployment etc.). If such indicators were to become policy objectives or become important element of policy evaluation there would be strong incentives to manipulate them.

The Future of Central Bank Independence

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Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The argument may still be relevant, but it will be hard to test it as we are unlikely to see both less central bank independence AND a surge of inflation above target in the next 48 months

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Question 3: More generally, do you agree that it is desirable to maintain central bank independence? Again focus on the near future, say next 48 months.

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The Kydland-Prescott/Barro-Gordon argument remains valid.

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