Wendy Carlin's picture
Affiliation: 
University College London
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

German current account surpluses

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Question 1: Do you agree that German current account surpluses are a threat to the Eurozone economy?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Germany's current account surpluses reflect deep-seated characteristics of the German political economy pre-dating the formation of the Eurozone. Germany - like a number of other northern European economies - has an export-oriented growth model. The commitment not to use fiscal policy or policies that boost the private housing sector to secure high employment (other than when faced with exceptional shocks as in the financial crisis) disciplines the large wage setters. The outcome is successful targeting of the real exchange rate, which can deliver high employment via external demand. It is these characteristics that make it highly problematic to have a common currency area comprising a group of countries able to target the real exchange rate and a group that cannot. The latter rely on domestic demand (private or public) to ensure high employment. This incompatibility is the root of the problem; current account surpluses are the manifestation.

Brexit: the potential of a financial catastrophe and long-term consequences for the UK financial sector

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Question 2: What is the probability that the UK experiences such a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices following a vote for Brexit on 23 June?

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Answer:
31-70%
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences for the UK financial sector if the UK were to leave the EU?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

Brexit and financial market volatility

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Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

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Question 1: The value of the pound fell sharply this week. Do you agree that the public debate on Brexit can be expected to (continue to) lead to a substantially higher level of exchange rate volatility in the upcoming months?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The opening of the campaign is likely to have coordinated behaviour around a (warranted) depreciation. Uncertainty about the outcome is likely to produce further volatility.

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