Wouter Den Haan's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

UK House Prices and Macro-Prudential Policy July 2014

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Question 1: Do you agree it is time for more robust policy action to prevent a build-up of excessive housing-related risk?

 

 
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The increase in UK house prices is troublesome and a nontrivial risk factor given that the recovery of the UK economy has only just started and its continuation is far from certain.

Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014

Question 2

Assuming that Scotland becomes an independent country, do you agree that the UK government's position of ruling out a monetary union is in the economic interests of the continuing UK? 

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I don't think see substantial negative consequences if Scotland would be part of a monetary union with the continuing UK. The main reason is that Scotland is so small. One risk factor is that the continuing UK could be more sensitive to problems in the Scottish financial sector with a monetary union. But you don't need a monetary union to be exposed to another country's financial sector. Moreover, within a monetary union it may actually be easier for the continuing UK to make sure that Scottish banks are properly regulated.

Question 1

Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I don't see how economic conditions in Scotland would improve with independence other than that Scotland would possibly get a larger share of oil revenues. In contrast, I definitely see some downside risk factors. First of all, there would quite a bit of uncertainty regarding institutions, redistribution, business climate, and the political landscape. This will harm economic growth at least in the short run. As a small independent country it may be more affected by negative events such as industries leaving the country.

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The UK recovery is still fragile. Therefore, a weak Euro Area could very well pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery.

Question 1

Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Although there are some signs of recovery in the Euro Area the recovery is weak and structural problems remain. Therefore, we cannot disregard the possibility that the Euro Area will go through a sustained period of low or no growth similar to Japan's experience.

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