Wouter Den Haan's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014

Question 2

Assuming that Scotland becomes an independent country, do you agree that the UK government's position of ruling out a monetary union is in the economic interests of the continuing UK? 

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I don't think see substantial negative consequences if Scotland would be part of a monetary union with the continuing UK. The main reason is that Scotland is so small. One risk factor is that the continuing UK could be more sensitive to problems in the Scottish financial sector with a monetary union. But you don't need a monetary union to be exposed to another country's financial sector. Moreover, within a monetary union it may actually be easier for the continuing UK to make sure that Scottish banks are properly regulated.

Question 1

Do you agree that that Scotland would better off in economic terms as an independent country?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I don't see how economic conditions in Scotland would improve with independence other than that Scotland would possibly get a larger share of oil revenues. In contrast, I definitely see some downside risk factors. First of all, there would quite a bit of uncertainty regarding institutions, redistribution, business climate, and the political landscape. This will harm economic growth at least in the short run. As a small independent country it may be more affected by negative events such as industries leaving the country.

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The UK recovery is still fragile. Therefore, a weak Euro Area could very well pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery.

Question 1

Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Although there are some signs of recovery in the Euro Area the recovery is weak and structural problems remain. Therefore, we cannot disregard the possibility that the Euro Area will go through a sustained period of low or no growth similar to Japan's experience.

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
I am afraid that the financial crisis could cast a shadow for a substantial period on UK economic growth and I would not be surprised if this lingering impact would reduce UK growth by more than 2.5 percentage points over the upcoming ten-year period. In addition to the effects through continued problems in the Eurozone, I am thinking of (i) negative effects due to the unwinding of unconventional monetary policies (either direct negative effects or negative effects induced by the related uncertainty) and (ii) lack of serious regulatory reform and other substantial changes in the financial sector, which means that we cannot exclude other disruptions in the foreseeable future.

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