Wouter Den Haan's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Brexit and financial market volatility

======================================================================

Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?

======================================================================

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Brexit will affect the European and UK economy in many different dimensions. So there is no reason to believe that volatility will be restricted to exchange rates.

======================================================================

Question 1: The value of the pound fell sharply this week. Do you agree that the public debate on Brexit can be expected to (continue to) lead to a substantially higher level of exchange rate volatility in the upcoming months?

======================================================================

Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The possibility of Brexit comes with massive uncertainty in many different forms. Even if Brexit was a sure thing, then there still would be lots of uncertainty about the UK and European economy in the post-Brexit world. As markets try to understand what could happen and what the likelihoods of these outcomes are, market prices are bound to display a lot of volatility.

Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects

======================================================================

Question 2: Do you agree that the falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery?

======================================================================

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think there will be some negative effect, but I suspect it to be small.

======================================================================

Question 1: Do you agree that economic growth prospects for the global economy have seriously deteriorated?

======================================================================

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The downside risk has increased, for example, because of the refugee crisis, Brexit, the US presidential elections, and lower than expected growth. But the stock market response may be a bit of an overreaction.

Autumn Statement & Charter for Budgetary Responsibility

======================================================================

Question 2: Do you agree that the Charter for Budgetary Responsibility is helpful in underpinning the credibility of fiscal policy?

======================================================================

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The principle of the Charter is a good one. Although there will be some ambiguity in implementing it, it will still impose some discipline on behaving responsible during good times.

Pages