Wouter Den Haan's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

National Living Wage and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that the new NLW will have a muted effect on wages and prices?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The increase in the NLW will surely have some effect on average wages and prices. It is unlikely to be strong. If the UK economy grows rapidly, then the increase in the NLW is unlikely to matter very much for anything except low-wage workers. If the UK economy does not grow rapidly, then the increase in the NLW could have an impact on employment, but inflationary pressure is unlikely is such an environment.

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Question 1: Do you agree that the new National Living Wage is likely to lead to significantly lower employment?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The impact of an increase in the NLW is likely to depend on how the UK economy develops. If economic growth accelerates, then the increase in the NLW is unlikely to matter. On the other hand, if economic growth slows down, then an increase in the NLW could very well have a negative impact. The empirical evidence suggests, however, that the aggregate impact is likely to be small.

Brexit and financial market volatility

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Question 2: Do you agree that the possibility of Brexit significantly increases uncertainty and volatility in financial markets and the economy in general?

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Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Brexit will affect the European and UK economy in many different dimensions. So there is no reason to believe that volatility will be restricted to exchange rates.

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Question 1: The value of the pound fell sharply this week. Do you agree that the public debate on Brexit can be expected to (continue to) lead to a substantially higher level of exchange rate volatility in the upcoming months?

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Answer:
Strongly Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The possibility of Brexit comes with massive uncertainty in many different forms. Even if Brexit was a sure thing, then there still would be lots of uncertainty about the UK and European economy in the post-Brexit world. As markets try to understand what could happen and what the likelihoods of these outcomes are, market prices are bound to display a lot of volatility.

Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects

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Question 2: Do you agree that the falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think there will be some negative effect, but I suspect it to be small.

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