Recent
Surveys
Labour's First Year
The July 2025 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its panel the Labour government’s first year in power. There is relatively broad consensus that the Labour government’s policies are a mixed bag in their growth implications but differ in how they weigh the net effects of the policies. While almost half of the panellists believe that the overall effect of Labour’s policies on economic growth is modestly positive, a rough third of the panellists think the policies will harm economic growth moderately or substantially. Moreover, nearly half believe that the government has taken an excessive focus on limiting public borrowing, while about a third of the panel believe the balance between fiscal responsibility and other aims, including growth, to be just right.
Is the Dollar era over?
The June 2025 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its panel for their opinions on the future of the US dollar as a global reserve currency. The vast majority of panellists believes that the dollar’s position as the global reserve, and primary currency for cross-border transactions, will decline over the course of the next fifteen years. However, most panellists believe that the dollar will be the largest reserve currency. A majority of the panel believes that the renminbi will increase its ‘market share’ in central bank reserves and cross-border payments the most in the next 15 years.
The Trump Tariffs and the UK Economy
The April 2025 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel on the effects of Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs on the UK economy, and the policy response. A majority of panelists believe that the tariffs will have a net deflationary effect on the UK economy, while roughly a sixth of the panel believes the effect to be inflationary. A majority of the panel believes that the most impotant thing the UK can do in response is to enhance trade relations with other countries. A fifth of the panel believes that monetary policy is the main policy tool that the UK should implement in response to the tariffs.
The trans-Atlantic interest rate divergence
The March 2025 CfM-CEPR survey asked the panel for the causes of the interest rate divergence between the US and Europe. A majority of the CfM-CEPR panel attributes the divergence of US and EU interest rates to the long-term differences in growth expectations and the natural rate of interest. Around a third of the panel attributes the gap to diverging inflation expectations and fiscal policies.
How will Trump’s economic policies affect the EU economy?
The January 2025 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its panel on the impact of Trump’s tariff plans on the EU economy. A clear majority of the panel believes the effect of US tariffs on EU economic growth to be relatively small, reducing economic growth by less than 1 percentage point over the next four years. Most panellists believe that the EU’s best response to US tariffs would be a combination of retaliatory targeted tariffs, trade deals with non-US partners, and taxes or regulatory measures constraining US tech companies.
The Economic and Market Impact of the UK Budget
The November 2024 CfM survey asked the members of its panel about the impact of the UK Autumn Budget and the market reaction to the budget. The panel unanimously attributed the rise in medium-term interest rates in the runup to and the aftermath of the budget. Yet it was evenly split on what fraction of the rise in interest rates was due to the budget. Moreover, the vast majority of the panel believes that the rise in employer national insurance contributions will have small or no impact on UK economic growth in the upcoming five years.