The latest thinking of European macroeconomists

Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth


The March 2023 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its UK panel to identify the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023. Most panellists think that Brexit remains the primary drag on the UK’s potential output this year. A small fraction cites poor labour force participation as a major constraint. Several panellists suggest public investments and R&D subsidies as a solution to boost UK GDP in the medium term. Most panellists believe a combination of policies would be the most effective way to achieve this objective.

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023


The February 2023 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its European panel whether inflation has peaked in the Euro Area and its implications for ECB policy. A large majority of 74% of the panel thinks that inflation has already passed its peak, but half the panel thinks the ECB’s rate will need to rise to above the 3.5% peak currently forecast by market participants to support the rate of inflation reduction. Consistent with this, more than a third of the panel thinks that the ECB’s current trajectory will have interest rates too low to curb inflation.

Euro weakness in 2022


The January 2023 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its European panel about the reasons for the euro’s depreciation against the dollar in 2022. A majority of 56% of panellists thinks that monetary policy differences were the main cause for the euro’s decline. Nearly 30% attribute the value of the euro to developments in the real economy. The panel was nearly unanimous (at 80%) that the ECB shouldn’t have responded to the euro’s devaluation. 


Addressing UK public finances after the mini-budget crisis


The November 2022 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel about the need for deficit cuts following the mini-budget crisis. A large majority of 86% of panellists thinks that deficit cuts were desirable or necessary in late 2022. In addition, a majority of 60% endorsed the pace of deficit reduction. Finally, although a third of the panel thought the government got the mix of public spending reduction and taxes about right, more than 40% of the panel would have liked the budget to have further tax increases to limit cuts to public spending.