The latest thinking of European macroeconomists

Euro weakness in 2022


The January 2023 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its European panel about the reasons for the euro’s depreciation against the dollar in 2022. A majority of 56% of panellists thinks that monetary policy differences were the main cause for the euro’s decline. Nearly 30% attribute the value of the euro to developments in the real economy. The panel was nearly unanimous (at 80%) that the ECB shouldn’t have responded to the euro’s devaluation. 


Addressing UK public finances after the mini-budget crisis


The November 2022 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel about the need for deficit cuts following the mini-budget crisis. A large majority of 86% of panellists thinks that deficit cuts were desirable or necessary in late 2022. In addition, a majority of 60% endorsed the pace of deficit reduction. Finally, although a third of the panel thought the government got the mix of public spending reduction and taxes about right, more than 40% of the panel would have liked the budget to have further tax increases to limit cuts to public spending.