The latest thinking of European macroeconomists

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Tuesday, December 15, 2020

Summary

A majority of the CfM-CEPR panel of macroeconomic experts on the European economy predict a 2-5% decline in the level of potential Eurozone GDP, but no impact on potential the long-run growth rate.

Background

The December 2020 CfM-CEPR survey asked members of its European panel to estimate the loss in the level and growth rate of potential GDP in the Eurozone due to the Covid-19 pandemic.  

Covid’s Long-run Impact on the Eurozone Economy

Should the ECB Reformulate its Inflation Objective?

Monday, November 2, 2020

Summary

The European Central Bank (ECB) is in the process of reviewing its monetary policy strategy. A majority of CfM-CEPR panel members support allowing inflation to exceed 2% following periods when inflation has been below target and making more explicit its secondary objective of supporting economic growth and full employment. Only a minority supports increasing the inflation target itself.

Background