Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Monday, February 27, 2023
The February 2023 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its European panel whether inflation has peaked in the Euro Area and its implications for ECB policy. A large majority of 74% of the panel thinks that inflation has already passed its peak, but half the panel thinks the ECB’s rate will need to rise to above the 3.5% peak currently forecast by market participants to support the rate of inflation reduction. Consistent with this, more than a third of the panel thinks that the ECB’s current trajectory will have interest rates too low to curb inflation.