Surveys

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Monday, February 27, 2023

Summary

The February 2023 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its European panel whether inflation has peaked in the Euro Area and its implications for ECB policy. A large majority of 74% of the panel thinks that inflation has already passed its peak, but half the panel thinks the ECB’s rate will need to rise to above the 3.5% peak currently forecast by market participants to support the rate of inflation reduction. Consistent with this, more than a third of the panel thinks that the ECB’s current trajectory will have interest rates too low to curb inflation.

Euro weakness in 2022

Monday, January 23, 2023

Summary

The January 2023 CfM-CEPR survey asked the members of its European panel about the reasons for the euro’s depreciation against the dollar in 2022. A majority of 56% of panellists thinks that monetary policy differences were the main cause for the euro’s decline. Nearly 30% attribute the value of the euro to developments in the real economy. The panel was nearly unanimous (at 80%) that the ECB shouldn’t have responded to the euro’s devaluation. 

Background

Addressing UK public finances after the mini-budget crisis

Friday, December 2, 2022

Summary

The November 2022 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel about the need for deficit cuts following the mini-budget crisis. A large majority of 86% of panellists thinks that deficit cuts were desirable or necessary in late 2022. In addition, a majority of 60% endorsed the pace of deficit reduction. Finally, although a third of the panel thought the government got the mix of public spending reduction and taxes about right, more than 40% of the panel would have liked the budget to have further tax increases to limit cuts to public spending. 

Prospects for UK Economic Growth

Monday, May 30, 2022

Summary

The CfM-CEPR panel of experts on the UK economy is nearly unanimous that UK income growth will be low in the upcoming decade. The majority believe that this will be due to structural factors. The most effective policies to improve UK economic performance are raising public investment and improving trade relations with the EU and other trading partners, according to the panel.

Background

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