Surveys

ECB Monetary Policy and Catch-up Inflation

Summary

Most members of the CfM-CEPR panel of experts on the European economy supports the ECB explicitly allowing inflation to exceed its target for extended periods to make up for below-target inflation in the past. This 60% majority has divided views on the optimal alternative policies, with the largest share supporting average inflation targeting and some members supporting nominal GDP targeting or hybrid policies. 40% of the panel would prefer to maintain the current policy of traditional inflation targeting. 

Background

Monetary Policy and Inequality

Summary

The majority of the CfM panel of experts on the UK economy thinks monetary policy has only a small impact on wealth and income inequality. A larger majority of nearly 90% of the panel believes that inequality should play a minimal role or no role in the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions.

Background

Central Bank Digital Currency for the UK

Summary

The CfM panel of experts on the UK economy is nearly unanimous in agreeing that a Bank of England-issued digital currency would benefit the British economy. Half of the panel also believes that a digital currency would have limited impact on the UK banking system.

Background

The June 2021 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel to assess the benefits of a Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) to the UK economy and its potential risks to the UK banking sector. 

Central Bank Digital Currencies

Fiscal Rules in the European Monetary Union

Summary

The CfM-CEPR panel of experts on the European economy are nearly unanimous that existing EU rules require revision. Many panel members would opt for some package of fiscal councils; more flexible, countercyclical, or expenditure-based rules; and increased fiscal capacity at the EU level. A smaller share of panelists would scrap fiscal rules altogether, leave fiscal policy to national authorities, and provide greater clarity that the EU wouldn’t bail out countries facing debt problems. A single member called for stricter rules with greater enforcement.

Asset Prices and Monetary Policy

Summary

A majority of the CfM panel of experts on the UK economy believe that financial stability should be addressed with macroprudential tools and left out of monetary policy decisions. A larger majority opposes changing the Bank of England’s remit to target asset prices.

Background

The April 2021 CfM survey asked the members of its UK panel of experts what role the Bank of England should play in targeting asset prices and addressing financial imbalances. 

The “Spend Now, Tax Later” Budget

Summary

The majority of the CfM panel of experts on the UK economy thinks that the super-deduction for corporate investment announced in the spring budget will moderately aid the UK’s recovery from the Covid recession, but that the announced corporate tax increases will do moderate harm. Most panelists believe that the government is moving too fast on deficit reduction.

Background

The March 2021 CfM survey asked members of its UK panel of experts about tax, spending, and deficit-reduction measures in the spring budget.

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