Market Turbulence and Growth Prospects

The January 2016 Centre for Macroeconomics survey of experts asked for the panel’s views on the significance of the recent falls in share prices, low oil prices and the slowdown in some emerging market economies. While all recognise the considerable uncertainty in the world economy, more than two thirds do not fear that these events will have a significant negative impact on the UK’s economic recovery. The main argument is that any negative effect due to lower foreign demand and market instability is compensated by the benefits of lower oil prices.

Autumn Statement & Charter for Budgetary Responsibility


In the December 2015 Centre for Macroeconomics survey, we asked for the panel’s views about the Chancellor’s plans for debt reduction over the rest of this Parliament that were announced in the Autumn Statement on 25 November. We also asked about the economic rationale for the Charter for Budgetary Responsibility that was announced in the summer.

China’s growth slowdown: likely persistence and effects


What are the prospects for the Chinese economy and its international impact? Three quarters of the experts in the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) monthly survey believe that China’s annual growth rate will be less than 6% over the next ten years or so. But the panel is divided on whether the slowdown will have a significant impact on the UK economy.

ECB's quantitative easing


Will the risk-sharing arrangements within the European Central Bank’s quantitative easing (QE) programme reduce its effectiveness? According to the latest monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) reported in this column, our panel of experts are exactly evenly divided. The written responses suggest that this divergence reflects differences in views about the channels through which QE operates.


Monetary policy and the zero lower bound (ZLB)


Does monetary policy really face a zero lower bound or could policy rates be pushed materially below zero per cent? And would the benefits of reforms to achieve negative policy rates outweigh the costs? This column, which reports the views of the leading UK-based macroeconomists, suggests that there is no strong support for reforming the monetary system to allow policy rates to be set at negative levels.


Deal or no deal: The Greece standoff

Last week (week of June 22nd), the Greek authorities presented a new proposal to its creditors, consisting of increases in contributions to the government pension scheme,  a widening of the 23% VAT rate (but a reduced rate of 13% on energy, basic foods, catering and hotels), an increase in the corporate tax rate from 26% to 29%, an increase in the "solidarity" income tax rate that had been initiated under previous bailout programmes, and a reduction in defense spending.