Surveys

Surging Inflation in the UK

Summary

The CfM panel of experts on the UK economy is nearly unanimous that the current surge in UK inflation has been caused by supply side factors. These are mainly global in nature (commodity prices, supply chain disruptions), although Brexit may have exacerbated the problem. The global nature of inflation puts it mostly outside of the government’s control. The majority of the panel doesn’t believe that inflation will persist beyond 2022.

Background

Towards a High-Wage, High-Productivity Economy

Summary

The CfM panel of experts on the UK economy is nearly unanimous that the main path to sustainably higher wages is through long-term productivity growth. More than half of the panel believes that there are some scenarios in which higher wages lead to higher productivity and a minority thinks that government intervention in wages could lead to higher productivity. However, even this minority argues that policies supporting higher wages should be complemented with investments in skills and other productivity-enhancing measures.

Post-Covid Fiscal Rules for the UK

Summary

The majority of the CfM panel of experts on the UK economy thinks that the sequence of fiscal rules in place in the UK since 1997 have caused a material reduction in UK public debt. However, twice as many panellists thought these rules harmed the conduct of macroeconomic policy than those that thought they helped. Going forward, a majority of the panel believes that well designed rules limiting public deficits or debts would best improve the conduct of macroeconomic policy, but nearly a third of the panel would scrap fiscal rules altogether. 

ECB Monetary Policy and Catch-up Inflation

Summary

Most members of the CfM-CEPR panel of experts on the European economy supports the ECB explicitly allowing inflation to exceed its target for extended periods to make up for below-target inflation in the past. This 60% majority has divided views on the optimal alternative policies, with the largest share supporting average inflation targeting and some members supporting nominal GDP targeting or hybrid policies. 40% of the panel would prefer to maintain the current policy of traditional inflation targeting. 

Background

Monetary Policy and Inequality

Summary

The majority of the CfM panel of experts on the UK economy thinks monetary policy has only a small impact on wealth and income inequality. A larger majority of nearly 90% of the panel believes that inequality should play a minimal role or no role in the Bank of England’s monetary policy decisions.

Background

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