Monday, November 7, 2016
Summary
The November 2016 expert survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) invited views on a recent report by the German Council of Economic Experts (Sachverständigenrat), which argues that the current monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) is no longer appropriate and that it is masking structural problems in Eurozone countries.
Wednesday, October 12, 2016
Summary
The October 2016 expert survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) and the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) invited views on Germany’s trade surplus, its impact on the Eurozone economy and the appropriate response of German fiscal policy. More than two-thirds of the 67 respondents agree with the proposition that German current account surpluses are a threat to the Eurozone economy. A slightly smaller majority believe that the German government ought to increase public investment in response to the surpluses.
Monday, July 25, 2016
Summary
The outcome of the UK’s referendum on EU membership has prompted much soul-searching in the economics profession, which was nearly unanimous in anticipating negative economic consequences from a vote for Brexit. The July 2016 Centre for Macroeconomics survey of experts asked for views on the role played by economic arguments in the referendum outcome, and whether institutional change is needed in the way that the findings of academic economic research – and the views of the profession as a whole – are communicated.
Tuesday, June 7, 2016
Summary
The June 2016 Centre for Macroeconomics survey of experts asked for views on the impact of the UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union for the country’s financial sector. Almost all panel members thought that a vote for Brexit would lead to a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices for several months, which would put the Bank of England on high alert.
Friday, June 3, 2016
Summary
The April 2016 Centre for Macroeconomics survey of experts asked for the panel’s views on the future role of unconventional monetary policy. Opinions were divided, with healthy doses of scepticism on the effectiveness of current and future policies, but also many respondents expressing urgency that central banks should have more policy tools to affect inflation and real activity when the need arises. Ultimately, the experts’ hesitations match those of central banks.
Background
Wednesday, May 11, 2016
Summary
A new National Living Wage (NLW) replaces the UK’s National Minimum Wage from April – and so the March 2016 Centre for Macroeconomics survey of experts asked the panel what are likely to be its effects on employment, wages and prices. A majority of respondents believe that the NLW will not lead to significantly lower employment; similarly a majority of respondents believe that the NLW will only have a muted effect on wages and prices.