Surveys

2014 Autumn Statement

Thursday, December 4, 2014

Summary

In the wake of the Chancellor’s Autumn Statement on Wednesday, the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) has conducted its monthly survey of leading UK-based macroeconomists.

The responses indicate overwhelming disagreement with the view that the scale of the planned reduction in total managed government expenditure is realistic. They also indicate disagreement with the view that observed shortfalls in tax receipts make a strong case for higher tax rates.

Devolving Income Tax Powers within the UK

Wednesday, November 19, 2014

Summary:

This month's survey looks at the devolution of extensive new fiscal powers to Scotland following the independence referendum in September, which showed a majority of Scots preferred Scotland to be within the UK. The Smith Commission is overseeing the process of finding an agreement to 'strengthen the powers of the Scottish Parliament within the UK' (emphasis added). We therefore asked our respondents to answer our questions from the perspective of the whole UK, rather than from one constituent nation or another.

Secular Stagnation

Friday, October 3, 2014

Summary:

This month’s questions concern the revival of interest in the idea of secular stagnation. The survey was conducted in the last week of September. A full list of written responses from our panel of experts can be found here. Only 24% (27% if we weigh by confidence) of respondents think that the Western economies have entered a period of secular stagnation. Indeed, several panel members question whether secular stagnation is a useful and well-defined concept and this may explain the lack of strong views on either side.

Migration and the UK economy August 2014

Thursday, October 2, 2014

Summary

This month’s survey focuses on the impact of migration on the UK economy and the effectiveness of current government migration policies. Among respondents to the fifth monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), there is overwhelming support for the view that migration will increase the average income of current UK inhabitants. Moreover, the panel of experts thinks that current government policies are not effective in attracting the ‘best and brightest’ – in fact, they may even be doing the opposite.

UK House Prices and Macro-Prudential Policy July 2014

Monday, June 30, 2014

Summary

How should UK policy-makers respond to potential dangers to the economy from the housing market? As this survey reports, a majority of respondents to the fourth monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM) think that house price dynamics do pose a risk to the UK’s recovery; and that macroprudential tools rather than traditional interest rate policy should be deployed to deal with this risk.

Economic Consequences of an Independent Scotland June 2014

Saturday, June 7, 2014

Summary

Would Scotland be better-off in economic terms as an independent country? Not according to an overwhelming majority of respondents to the third monthly survey of the Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), summarised in this column. As the Scottish electorate prepares to vote on independence in September, a smaller majority of the CFM experts agree that the UK would be acting in its own economic interests by ruling out a monetary union with an independent Scotland.

September’s referendum on Scottish independence

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