Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Again, difficult to be confident. I am basing my answer on my reading of historical experience, which is that the displacement effect of technology has put pressure on wage growth but has not led to sustained rise in unemployment in the past.
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Increase (to 4-6%)
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
It is extremely hard to be confident about these issues. The range of estimates I have seen, e.g. from Goldman Sachs and co, is very wide. And the impact through political process, GE effects of more uncertainty, etc, is very hard to predict.
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Answer:
Public investments and R&D subsidies
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The country should invest in itself (it badly needs public investment across the board) and build on its comparative advantage. Worker retraining and brining communities back into the economic fold should be a part of this.
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Answer:
Brexit
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The large direct effects of Brexit on trade in goods and services, on investment, and on migration are well documented. On top of that Brexit has had two important - though not quantified, or perhaps quantifiable - economic effects through political channels: first, it has served as a huge distraction, essentially focusing the entire state away from solving pressing problems, not least consequences of a decade austerity or the skills crisis; second and relatedly, it has kept afloat talentless politicians who lack vision and continuously mismanage the country.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Artificial Intelligence and the Economy
Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?
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