Łukasz Rachel's picture
Affiliation: 
UCL

Voting history

Artificial Intelligence and the Economy

Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Again, difficult to be confident. I am basing my answer on my reading of historical experience, which is that the displacement effect of technology has put pressure on wage growth but has not led to sustained rise in unemployment in the past.

Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Increase (to 4-6%)
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
It is extremely hard to be confident about these issues. The range of estimates I have seen, e.g. from Goldman Sachs and co, is very wide. And the impact through political process, GE effects of more uncertainty, etc, is very hard to predict.

Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth

Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?

Answer:
Public investments and R&D subsidies
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The country should invest in itself (it badly needs public investment across the board) and build on its comparative advantage. Worker retraining and brining communities back into the economic fold should be a part of this.

Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?

Answer:
Brexit
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The large direct effects of Brexit on trade in goods and services, on investment, and on migration are well documented. On top of that Brexit has had two important - though not quantified, or perhaps quantifiable - economic effects through political channels: first, it has served as a huge distraction, essentially focusing the entire state away from solving pressing problems, not least consequences of a decade austerity or the skills crisis; second and relatedly, it has kept afloat talentless politicians who lack vision and continuously mismanage the country.

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?

Answer:
The MRO rate will peak at 3.5%
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
At or a little above 3.5%. I think the ECB might now move by 25bps per meeting

Pages