University of Oxford
Senior Research Fellow in Economics, University of Oxford

Voting history

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?

A small portion of the decline
Confidence level:
Very confident
UK consumer spending declined before the start of the first national lockdown. The poor functioning of the UK contact tracing infrastructure and bad health outcomes continue to restrain spending. International experience points to the fact that it is not simply lockdowns that are responsible for falls in economic growth.