Andrea Ferrero's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Oxford

Voting history

Artificial Intelligence and the Economy

Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
I expect unemployment to increase in the short run as human employment in some tasks and jobs becomes obsolete. In the medium run, the supply will adjust and it's possible that AI may even reduce the natural rate of unemployment in the long run. I'm just not sure.

Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
I expect AI to have a significant impact on the economy, but I'm not really sure how. I can imagine that some sectors will benefit more than others, and some may even suffer. The implications for economic growth overall are highly uncertain in my view.

Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth

Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?

Answer:
Public investments and R&D subsidies
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
All policies listed in the question seem rather important. I've chosen public investment and R&D subsidies because the infrastructure in the UK is in dire conditions and innovation could certainly provide a productivity boost. Policy certainty could also help a lot, especially if something could be done to mitigate the costs of Brexit.

Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?

Answer:
Brexit
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The UK shares similar exposure to all factors listed in the question (which are surely important) with many other countries around the world. Brexit is the truly unique drag to the UK economy. I always thought that the negative consequences of Brexit would materialize in the medium/long run. In addition, at the moment, the costs of Brexit are interacting with other temporary factors, such as the disruption of global supply chains and the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Euro weakness in 2022

Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?

Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
The ECB should continue to focus on its inflation stability mandate and thus respond to exchange rate movements only insofar as inflation is affected.

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