Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
I expect unemployment to increase in the short run as human employment in some tasks and jobs becomes obsolete. In the medium run, the supply will adjust and it's possible that AI may even reduce the natural rate of unemployment in the long run. I'm just not sure.
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
I expect AI to have a significant impact on the economy, but I'm not really sure how. I can imagine that some sectors will benefit more than others, and some may even suffer. The implications for economic growth overall are highly uncertain in my view.
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Answer:
Public investments and R&D subsidies
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
All policies listed in the question seem rather important. I've chosen public investment and R&D subsidies because the infrastructure in the UK is in dire conditions and innovation could certainly provide a productivity boost. Policy certainty could also help a lot, especially if something could be done to mitigate the costs of Brexit.
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Answer:
Brexit
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The UK shares similar exposure to all factors listed in the question (which are surely important) with many other countries around the world. Brexit is the truly unique drag to the UK economy. I always thought that the negative consequences of Brexit would materialize in the medium/long run. In addition, at the moment, the costs of Brexit are interacting with other temporary factors, such as the disruption of global supply chains and the consequences of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Artificial Intelligence and the Economy
Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Euro weakness in 2022
Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
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