Angus Armstrong's picture
Affiliation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Credentials: 
Director of Macroeconomic Research
Visiting Professor, Imperial College London

Voting history

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
By a large amount and persistently
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Inequalities at an early age cast the longest shadow because of cumulative consequences ('we learn to read then read to learn'). This will interact with the additional burden being on those in low skilled work and the lack of resources at home. The effects are likely to be most severe for those just starting school.

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
Large
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
A year of schooling is a large cost, albeit spread over life time earnings. Temporary school closures are also likely to interact with the already unequal costs of the virus across society and thereby widen social and regional disparities.

COVID-19 and UK Public Finances

Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?

Answer:
Higher inflation
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Targets and rules have become immutable, and now part of the problem in complex system.

Question 1: How urgently should the UK government address the rise in public debt?

Answer:
There is no need to take or announce any budgetary actions to reduce the deficit or the public debt until the end of the pandemic
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
Over insuring in a crisis usually pays dividends.

Pages