Question 2: What is the best mechanism to pay for economic support provided by and to EU member states to combat the COVID-19 crisis?
Answer:
Joint borrowing by member states (e.g. Coronabonds)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
This is the logical answer for a monetary union to succeed over the longer term.
Question 1: What is the total size of funding that you would advocate at the EU level in support of its members to weather the COVID-19 crisis this year?
Answer:
10-20% of GDP
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
This would constitute a huge one year budgeted package. However, I have low confidence in my answer because it depends on the form of the package. If this were a full transfer from North to South, this would signal a federal Europe. If instead it is a loan or has implausible conditionality then this may not be enough.
Question 3: Which would be the maximal public debt you would be willing to tolerate if used effectively (as in your answers to 1 and 2 above) to support an economic recovery?
Answer:
>140% of GDP
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Everything is contingent on the disease, but protection of citizens is the first job of the state. Failure to do so would lead to anarchy and so I do not think an upper bound can be guessed without a clear statement of the upper bound on the disease which we are yet to know (e.g., some epidemiologists expect secondary waves of infection).
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
COVID-19 and UK Public Finances
Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?
Question 1: How urgently should the UK government address the rise in public debt?
The Eurozone COVID-19 Crisis: EU Policy Options
Question 2: What is the best mechanism to pay for economic support provided by and to EU member states to combat the COVID-19 crisis?
Question 1: What is the total size of funding that you would advocate at the EU level in support of its members to weather the COVID-19 crisis this year?
Covid-19: Economic Policy Response
Question 3: Which would be the maximal public debt you would be willing to tolerate if used effectively (as in your answers to 1 and 2 above) to support an economic recovery?
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