Angus Armstrong's picture
Affiliation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Credentials: 
Director of Macroeconomic Research
Visiting Professor, Imperial College London

Voting history

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
Large
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
A year of schooling is a large cost, albeit spread over life time earnings. Temporary school closures are also likely to interact with the already unequal costs of the virus across society and thereby widen social and regional disparities.

COVID-19 and UK Public Finances

Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?

Answer:
Higher inflation
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Targets and rules have become immutable, and now part of the problem in complex system.

Question 1: How urgently should the UK government address the rise in public debt?

Answer:
There is no need to take or announce any budgetary actions to reduce the deficit or the public debt until the end of the pandemic
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
Over insuring in a crisis usually pays dividends.

The Eurozone COVID-19 Crisis: EU Policy Options

Question 2: What is the best mechanism to pay for economic support provided by and to EU member states to combat the COVID-19 crisis?

Answer:
Joint borrowing by member states (e.g. Coronabonds)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
This is the logical answer for a monetary union to succeed over the longer term.

Question 1: What is the total size of funding that you would advocate at the EU level in support of its members to weather the COVID-19 crisis this year?

 

 

Answer:
10-20% of GDP
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
This would constitute a huge one year budgeted package. However, I have low confidence in my answer because it depends on the form of the package. If this were a full transfer from North to South, this would signal a federal Europe. If instead it is a loan or has implausible conditionality then this may not be enough.

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