Angus Armstrong's picture
Affiliation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Credentials: 
Director of Macroeconomic Research
Visiting Professor, Imperial College London

Voting history

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Moderate deflation over perhaps two or three quarters in the euro zone would be a 'headwind' for the UK through usual channels. However, banks are much less exposed to troubled countries and credit and labour market conditions have improved to the extent that I would not expect the UK to fall beck into recession as a direct consequence.

Question 1

Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In NIESR's latest quarterly forecast (published last week) we have euro area inflation of 0.1% to 0.2% in the third and fourth quarters of this year as a central case. Deflation, as defined, would certainly fall within a 25% probability around this central case. The critical question would then become what happens to expectations, which in some part depends on the ECB. NIESR's forecast has inflation back over 1% in 2015 as a central case.

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The implication is a fall in productivity growth which I expect due to the failed financial structure and the lack of clear policy to resolve this.

Question 1

The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy.  Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?  

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

Responsible long-term fiscal policy (pilot survey)

Second question:

To help ensure that advanced country governments pursue responsible fiscal policies, countries should adopt formal rules for limiting structural deficits, which are supported by primary legislation or constitutional reform.

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident

Pages