Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?
I do not beleive Greece can meet all of its commitments. Therefore, a refusal to re-negotiate will increase the size of the problem and the risk of real political unrest. I think a fair assessment of the other countries is possible and whether or not they can adjust. Of course there is moral hazard all over this. However, after a certain point the trade-off is likely to show that the cost of the moral hazard is less than the consequences of denying the size of the problem.
Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?
Question 2:Do you agree that the underperformance of tax receipts in recent years, provides a strong case for higher taxes?
Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I don't think there is enough evidence yet to fully understand what is behind the underperformance of receipts yet (maybe this will change with the self-assessment results). Until we understand more fully the reasoning, I don't think it follows that this would justify higher taxes. Whether taxes should be higher or not, regardless of the reasons of the under-performance, is another question.
Question 1: Do you agree that the scale of this planned reduction in total managed expenditure is credible?
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I doubt the GDP growth forecasts will be met with this extent of cuts. Therefore the projected decline in the ratio is unlikely to be achieved.
Question 1: Do you agree that the economic benefits of devolving full income tax powers to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly outweigh the possible costs?
Answer:
Strongly Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
I suspect there is a fallacy of composition here: what may 'appear' beneficial to Scotland would be detremental to the Union and therefore Scotland within the UK. First, different tax rates on mobile factors lead to inefficiency, complexity and evasion. Second, as income tax is the most 'visible' tax, there would be even less connection to UK policies. Third, income tax in Scotland is more volatile than in the UK which itself seems to have variable trends. There may need to be substantial revenue borrowing powers or pro-cyclcial policies. Fourth, if other nations follow, the UK government would lose direct control over its biggest source of tax revenue, which ould be 'careless' to say the least when the UK govt has a high borrowing requirement.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Greece’s elections and the future of the Eurozone
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Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?
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2014 Autumn Statement
Question 2: Do you agree that the underperformance of tax receipts in recent years, provides a strong case for higher taxes?
Question 1: Do you agree that the scale of this planned reduction in total managed expenditure is credible?
Devolving Income Tax Powers within the UK
Question 1: Do you agree that the economic benefits of devolving full income tax powers to the Scottish Parliament and Welsh Assembly outweigh the possible costs?
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