Angus Armstrong's picture
Affiliation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Credentials: 
Director of Macroeconomic Research
Visiting Professor, Imperial College London

Voting history

UK House Prices and Macro-Prudential Policy July 2014

===========================

Question 1: Do you agree it is time for more robust policy action to prevent a build-up of excessive housing-related risk?

 

 
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
While 10% house price inflation on a continuous basis would create problems, the current high level of prices follows three or four years of little growth. Moreover, some leading indicators suggest the house price inflation rate will slow considerably in coming quarters. It is hard to see how such little increase in lending can constitute a build up of significant risk. While more robust policy may prove necessary in time, I think it is hard to conclude that we have reached that time already.

Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that a deflation in the Euro area (as defined in Question 1) would pose a considerable risk to the UK recovery?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Moderate deflation over perhaps two or three quarters in the euro zone would be a 'headwind' for the UK through usual channels. However, banks are much less exposed to troubled countries and credit and labour market conditions have improved to the extent that I would not expect the UK to fall beck into recession as a direct consequence.

Question 1

Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In NIESR's latest quarterly forecast (published last week) we have euro area inflation of 0.1% to 0.2% in the third and fourth quarters of this year as a central case. Deflation, as defined, would certainly fall within a 25% probability around this central case. The critical question would then become what happens to expectations, which in some part depends on the ECB. NIESR's forecast has inflation back over 1% in 2015 as a central case.

Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014

Question 2

Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The implication is a fall in productivity growth which I expect due to the failed financial structure and the lack of clear policy to resolve this.

Question 1

The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy.  Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?  

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident

Pages