Question 3: Should a windfall tax be used to (fully or partially) finance support to households?
Answer:
No opinion or other
Confidence level:
Not confident
Question 2: Which of the following is the best way to address the impact of rising energy costs on household finances?
Answer:
Conditional/targeted transfers
Confidence level:
Very confident
Question 1: Overall, which of the following best characterises how the government’s proposed energy policies will leave the average UK household over the medium term:
Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Germany is more dependent on Russian gas than most other EU countries. This suggests that the GDP losses for the other countries should be bounded above by those for Germany. At the same time, I am less confident about this because I have not had the chance to look at the data (both on energy dependence and the sectoral makeup of the economy) and conduct detailed simulations with all the necessary due diligence for other EU countries in the way we did for Germany. In a report with David Baqaee, Camille Landais and Philippe Martin that we wrote for the French Council of Economic Advisors https://www.cae-eco.fr/staticfiles/pdf/cae-focus84.pdf, we did look at France in more detail, a country that is considerably less dependent on Russian gas than Germany. Our results are consistent with the intuition that the numbers for such countries are smaller than those for Germany. Given this, my very rough guess would be for EU-wide GDP losses from a gas import ban to be in the range between 0.5% and 2% of GDP.
Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?
Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Similar reasoning as in response to the previous question. Well-targeted fiscal policy could arguably undo some of the Keynesian aggregate demand amplification discussed there. At the same time, this is still fundamentally a negative shock to aggregate supply so fiscal policy would not be able to *undo* the shock and reduce GDP losses below the 1% to 3% range. I would argue that GDP losses with well-targeted fiscal policy would likely lie somewhere in the 1% to 2.5% range.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Assisting Households Facing Rising Energy Costs
Question 3: Should a windfall tax be used to (fully or partially) finance support to households?
Question 2: Which of the following is the best way to address the impact of rising energy costs on household finances?
Question 1: Overall, which of the following best characterises how the government’s proposed energy policies will leave the average UK household over the medium term:
Effects of an embargo on Russian gas
Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?
Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?
Pages