Cédric Tille's picture
Affiliation: 
The Graduate Institute, Geneva
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Question 3:  Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?

Answer:
ECB policy rates will be appropriate in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?

Answer:
The MRO rate will peak above 3.5%.
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?

Answer:
Likely
Confidence level:
Confident

Euro weakness in 2022

Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?

Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Exchange rate should per se be something the ECB reacts to. To the extent that the exchange rate connects to inflation, then an answer is fine, but it is an answer to price pressure, not the exchange rate itself.

Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?

Answer:
Monetary policy differences
Confidence level:
Very confident

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