Chryssi Giannitsarou's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Cambridge, Faculty of Economics
Credentials: 
Reader (Assoc. Professor) in Macroeconomics and Finance

Voting history

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
½ percentage point or less
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between 2% and 5%
Confidence level:
Not confident

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods? 

Answer:
No tradeoff at all
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Well designed policies can both preserve livelihoods and save lives. Suppression measures not only save lives, but also ensure that the rest of the population has better health and therefore is more productive and eventually economically active.

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
Small damage
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Same reasoning applies as in Question 1. If we are facing a second wave it is reasonable to ramp up measures to suppress the second wave as much as possible. If the measures are not implemented at the right time and with the right intensity, there is a risk of overwhelming the health sector, as well as the risk of large loss of life.

Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?

Answer:
A small portion of the decline
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is hard to know how individuals would have responded in the absence of lockdowns, i.e. whether they would spontaneously withdraw from certain activities to protect themselves from getting infected. It is also hard to know how much aggregate productivity of the labour force would have declined if there was a much higher number of infections and deaths. Finally, the indirect impact due to potentially overwhelming the health sector is again potentially substantial. There is some evidence from countries that are comparable (Denmark and Sweden) that suggests that the extra decrease of GDP due to lockdowns is very small, as shown by Sheridan, Andersen, Hansen, and Johannesen (2020), 'Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia'.

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