Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods?
Answer:
No tradeoff at all
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Well designed policies can both preserve livelihoods and save lives. Suppression measures not only save lives, but also ensure that the rest of the population has better health and therefore is more productive and eventually economically active.
Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?
Answer:
Small damage
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Same reasoning applies as in Question 1. If we are facing a second wave it is reasonable to ramp up measures to suppress the second wave as much as possible. If the measures are not implemented at the right time and with the right intensity, there is a risk of overwhelming the health sector, as well as the risk of large loss of life.
Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?
Answer:
A small portion of the decline
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It is hard to know how individuals would have responded in the absence of lockdowns, i.e. whether they would spontaneously withdraw from certain activities to protect themselves from getting infected. It is also hard to know how much aggregate productivity of the labour force would have declined if there was a much higher number of infections and deaths. Finally, the indirect impact due to potentially overwhelming the health sector is again potentially substantial.
There is some evidence from countries that are comparable (Denmark and Sweden) that suggests that the extra decrease of GDP due to lockdowns is very small, as shown by Sheridan, Andersen, Hansen, and Johannesen (2020), 'Social distancing laws cause only small losses of economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic in Scandinavia'.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone
Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance
Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods?
Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?
Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?
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