Costas Milas's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Liverpool
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
½ percentage point or less
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
2% or less
Confidence level:
Not confident

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods? 

Answer:
Small tradeoff
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It is reasonable to argue that there is a small trade-off, at least in the very short run between controlling COVID-19 (e.g. based on non-pharmaceutical interventions) and saving jobs by keeping part of the economy open. In recent research of mine (co-authored), however (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3602004), we show that the greater the strength of government interventions at an early stage, the more effective these are in slowing down or reversing the growth rate of COVID-19 deaths. In fact, the earlier these interventions take place, the smaller the associated economic hit (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3611386).

Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?

Answer:
A small portion of the decline
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
This is arguably not as tricky as it looks. In the very short run, GDP would have dropped by less. In the medium run, however, an "unchecked" virus would have triggered a much larger number of infections and a huge loss in terms of lives, in which case, the economy would have suffered in an unprecedented scale.

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
Small damage
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think that we have now started living with the virus around us so the damage will be fairly small.

Pages