Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Answer:
Public investments and R&D subsidies
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Answer:
Brexit
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In my view, the main issue here is weak productivity. UK productivity lags well behind that of the remaining G7 economies. According to the OECD (https://data.oecd.org/lprdty/gdp-per-hour-worked.htm), output per hour worked in the UK is below that of the remaining G7 economies. At the same time, however, UK productivity is the seventh weakest among more than thirty OECD economies. So why is UK productivity so weak? The reason is (lack of) business investment. Business investment in the UK. Firms are (still) unwilling to invest because Brexit is holding us back. The fact that Britain's politicians (both Conservative and (less so) Labour ones) do not (?) realize Brexit's damage on the economy adds to their credibility problem which makes both domestic and international investors hesitant to invest. This, in turn, undermines UK's productivity prospects and, consequently, the country's economic growth prospects.
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Answer:
ECB policy interest rates will be too low in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Assuming a policy rate of 3.5% but inflation in excess of that level, a negative real interest rate would most likely sustain existing market distortions.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Artificial Intelligence and the Economy
Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
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