Costas Milas's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Liverpool
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Artificial Intelligence and the Economy

Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Increase
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Increase slightly.

Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I would say: increase between 1% and 2%

Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth

Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?

Answer:
Public investments and R&D subsidies
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?

Answer:
Brexit
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In my view, the main issue here is weak productivity. UK productivity lags well behind that of the remaining G7 economies. According to the OECD (https://data.oecd.org/lprdty/gdp-per-hour-worked.htm), output per hour worked in the UK is below that of the remaining G7 economies. At the same time, however, UK productivity is the seventh weakest among more than thirty OECD economies. So why is UK productivity so weak? The reason is (lack of) business investment. Business investment in the UK. Firms are (still) unwilling to invest because Brexit is holding us back. The fact that Britain's politicians (both Conservative and (less so) Labour ones) do not (?) realize Brexit's damage on the economy adds to their credibility problem which makes both domestic and international investors hesitant to invest. This, in turn, undermines UK's productivity prospects and, consequently, the country's economic growth prospects.

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Question 3:  Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?

Answer:
ECB policy interest rates will be too low in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Assuming a policy rate of 3.5% but inflation in excess of that level, a negative real interest rate would most likely sustain existing market distortions.

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