Question 2: Do you agree that the Bank's proposal to release the policy decision, MPC minutes and (once a quarter) the Inflation Report all at the same time justifies a change in the structure of MPC meetings from two consecutive days to a process in which in the MPC meetings are spread out over seven days?
Question 1: Do you agree that the simultaneous release of the policy decision, the enhanced minutes (including the voting record) of the MPC meeting and (in the relevant months) the release of the Inflation Report will facilitate inference on the likely stance of monetary policy?
Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?
I am confident to some extent. Whatever academics or policy-makers say, it is difficult to evaluate the potential risks of a fallout between Greece and Eurozone's core. This is because, if a Grexit takes place, and if Greece, in sharp contrast to expectations, does better (in the medium term) outside the Euro, others might be tempted to follow. This will definitely undermine irreversibly the whole Euro project.
Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?
Spreads in other peripheral countries were under pressure in 2012 when the exposure of their banks to Greek debt was substantial. Since then, Greek debt has been restructured. Today, there is very little exposure of banks to Greek debt. Hence, a revival of Grexit talk will have much less (if any) impact beyond Greece. Indeed, despite the political uncertainty in Greece, and the prospect of a government led by SYRIZA, spreads in the remaining GIIPS (let alone Eurozone’s core) have hardly moved.
What is the implication of all these? A new Greek government (led by SYRIZA) should not try to negotiate with the so-called Troika by playing the card of a Greek-domino effect. Doing so will probably make Greece “sleepwalk” towards Euro exit without a significant contagion effect.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Transparency and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy following the Warsh Review at the Bank of England
Greece’s elections and the future of the Eurozone
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Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?
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2014 Autumn Statement
Question 2: Do you agree that the underperformance of tax receipts in recent years, provides a strong case for higher taxes?
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