Costas Milas's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Liverpool
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
Minor
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Negligible to minor over 10 to 15 years. In a brand new working paper, co-authors and I (https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3602004) review the recent literature which finds that, based on previous pandemics, costs of school closures are estimated between 0.2% and 1% of UK national gross domestic product per annum for school closures of 12-13 weeks. The real question here is: can we have meaningful social distancing at school? The answer, of course, is obvious...

Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?

Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?

Answer:
Labour markets (e.g. unemployment hysteresis effects)
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions? 

Answer:
The economy will recover within a small number (1-5) of years
Confidence level:
Confident

COVID-19 and UK Public Finances

Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?

Answer:
Perpetuities
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 1: How urgently should the UK government address the rise in public debt?

Answer:
There is no need to take or announce any budgetary actions to reduce the deficit or the public debt until the end of the pandemic
Confidence level:
Confident

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