David Cobham's picture
Affiliation: 
Heriot Watt University
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between ½ and 2 percentage points
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between 2% and 5%
Confidence level:
Confident

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods? 

Answer:
No tradeoff at all
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Small trade-off in short run but no trade-off at all in long run. See comment under question 1.

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
The economy will benefit from lockdown
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Under the new measures the incidence of Covid will rise less, and this will facilitate over time a smaller fall in GDP

Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?

Answer:
GDP would have been lower absent lockdowns
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The incidence of the disease would have risen much further, so people themselves would have adopted significant mitigating behaviour, and the combination of these two developments would have led to a deeper fall in GDP. It is essential to distinguish between the short run and longer run trade-offs - see Simon Wren-Lewis's blog for 19 October at https://mainlymacro.blogspot.com/.

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