David Cobham's picture
Affiliation: 
Heriot Watt University
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Artificial Intelligence and the Economy

Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It might take longer for the reinstatement effects to balance the other effects.

Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Increase (to 4-6%)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Assuming no overwhelming adverse shocks!

Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth

Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?

Answer:
N/A or Other
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
What government can and should provide is a combination of public investments – in physical infrastructure, social infrastructure (education and health), R&D – which will improve transport and communications, labour skills, labour force participation and the business environment more generally, and so open the way for higher and more productive business investment. In addition, the UK needs a combination of tax changes and minimum wage increases which will make a serious mark on the glaring inequalities across regions and social groups, give the currently poorer regions and groups a greater stake in society and allow scope for their creativity and contributions.

Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?

Answer:
Brexit
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Brexit relative to the pre-2019 trend. But it is important to recognise that that miserable trend was heavily the result of years of austerity, which of course largely continue to this day (and Brexit can be argued to be in part a result of that austerity). What we see today is the result of misguided but longstanding 'private sector positive, public sector negative' views which ignore the role of public services, from education to health to infrastructure, in creating the conditions for strong growth. We economists should do more to challenge those views, and to reverse that miserable trend.

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Question 3:  Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?

Answer:
ECB policy rates will be appropriate in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident

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