Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?
Answer:
Labour markets (e.g. unemployment hysteresis effects)
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Labour markets should be understood to subsume human capital issues too: there needs to be a lot of focus on retraining. And please let's not put the emphasis on forcing people to accept low-paid low-productivity jobs as has been the norm since 2010, that's not a way to improve long run economic growth or create a decent civilised society. At some point policymakers might also like to reflect on the fact that their job in this situation, and the lot of many people, would have been much easier if the UK had already had in operation some sort of basic income stream.
Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions?
Answer:
Recovery will be slow (5-15 years)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
If the issue is when the UK will return to the (not very impressive) trend level and growth of the l2-3 years before the pandemic, then 5 years seems too few (but 15 too many).
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Economic Cost of School Closures
Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?
Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?
Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?
Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?
Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?
Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions?
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