Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
Yes, the MPC should wait: it is not yet clear that real wages are rising in any significant way, particularly if account is taken of the continuing high level of underemployment as highlight in the article by Davids Bell and Blanchflower in the latest National Institute Economic Review.
In principle, yes. But we need to revise our ideas of 'strong' so as to take account of the innovative devices used by employers (zero contract hours, tightened work discipline, that sort of thing) as well as the much greater pressure from job centres and the benefit system on the unemployed to take poor jobs: the older period search models which can be seen as lying behind the Jackman, Layard and Nickell conceptualisation of the Phillips relationship are no longer adequate (but need to be supplemented rather than thrown away). Such a reappraisal which focuses on long term changes in the balance of power in the labour market, as well as cyclical variations, would also illuminate current issues regarding inequality.
Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
I agree with the statement for the short term. But if this weakening was part of a wider rebalancing of the UK economy (which I doubt will occur), then there could be some positive effects on growth in the longer term.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?
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Bitcoin and the City
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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?
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Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
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House Prices and the UK economy
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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?
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