David Miles's picture
Affiliation: 
Imperial College
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
No different
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
I suspect lasting impacts of COVID are largely on the level of capacity rather than its rate of growth.

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
Between 2% and 5%
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Education disruption and failure of firms allied with a sharp rise in unemployment are unlikely to leave no medium term (and indeed long term) costs to capacity.

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 3: Using not only the policy tools that have been part of the UK policy mix thus far but also policy tools implemented in other countries, to what extent does the government face a tradeoff between saving lives and preserving livelihoods? 

Answer:
Large tradeoff
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It may well be a tradeoff between lives lost to COVID now and lives lost (and others blighted) for many years to come. To go for total suppression now until a vaccine is widely available so as to minimise lives lost now due to COVID would plausibly wreak widespread costs to health, life expectancy and livelihoods for years to come.

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
Small damage
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
Relatively "Small damage" IF the lockdown is designed to cut infections so as to reduce chance of hospital meltdown and that is achieved by December 2.

Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?

Answer:
A moderate portion of the decline (around a half)
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The rules in the UK told people to stay at home (without exceptional reasons) and closed all non essential shops. It is hard to believe that the decline in activity would have been little different had the government instead closed some high risk activities (mass audience sports and entertainment events) and given guidance on risks.

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