Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?
Answer:
By a large amount and persistently
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The damage to education done by school closures has been very unequal - the least well off have been set back by the most. Evidence suggests that 6 months of virtually no schooling is very damaging to future incomes, and many of those from the poorest groups seem to have experienced something close to that.
Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?
Answer:
Moderate
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In terms of aggregate growth the impacts will probably be moderate but not trivial. Cohorts with current ages from 5 to 18 have been affected by school closures. Fifteen years from now they will be aged 20 to 33 so the great majority will be of working age. They could make up around 25% to 30% of the workforce. If the lasting damage to their productivity and job prospects is only a few percentage points - say 3% to 6% - it will mean GDP is then lower by a percent or two.
Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?
Answer:
Labour markets (e.g. unemployment hysteresis effects)
Confidence level:
Not confident
Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions?
Answer:
The economy will recover within a small number (1-5) of years
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
It may take a few years before recovery is complete - a V shaped recovery with output back to the pre-crisis levels by early 2021 no longer seems plausible given the likelihood of some restrictions lasting much of this year and the persistent effects of spells of unemployment. Recovery within 4-5 years seems more likely than within 1 year.
Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?
Answer:
None of the above, other, or no opinion
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The best way is to do so gradually (bond markets permitting) and let economic growth do its work. Should real interest rates on gilts remain at negative levels it will not take much growth to bring D/GDP down.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Economic Cost of School Closures
Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?
Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?
Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?
Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?
Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions?
COVID-19 and UK Public Finances
Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?
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