Regulators have tended to regard cryptocurrencies as a harmless curiosity but that is not a position that is tenable for the long-term. So regulatory oversight will have to be increased. Central banks should also be considering issuing their own digital currencies and in time will do so.
Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
Though cryptocurrencies are growing rapidly, their size and the fact that they are yet to become mainstream limits the damage they could do to the financial system. That will change, though not over the next two years.
Housing transactions are clearly related to consumer spending and lower housing transactions will mean weaker economic growth. The RICS surveys, from the chartered surveyors, show a picture of weak demand and weak supply in the second-hand market. Both are reflecting a similar phenomenon: falling real wages and consumer worries about the outlook, including the outlook for employment. They are part of the same picture, in which we should expect a lower consumer contribution to UK economic growth.
Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
Though in past cycles falling house prices have rippled out from London to the rest of the country, there have been special factors behind the weakness of house prices in the capital recently, including the impact of stamp duty. I would expect to see house prices flattening nationally but would be surprised if there is a significant fall
It is hard to separate rising debt and inflated asset prices from the years of loose monetary policy. The question is how markets respond to the tightening of policy, and whether that response constrains central banks.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Bitcoin and the City
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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?
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Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?
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House Prices and the UK economy
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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?
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Make sure to save each question separately
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Question 1: Do you agree that the phenomenon of declining house prices will ripple out from the London property market leading more UK regions to experience falling prices?
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Global risks from rising debt and asset prices
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Question 2: Is the loose monetary policy of major central banks responsible for the recent increase in global leverage or asset values?
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