Question 3: Relative to tax plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:
Answer:
No change
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 2: Relative to the public spending plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:
Answer:
Increasing public spending in real terms
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The Government's commitment to support local communities that host arrivals from Ukraine will bear a cost, probably requiring an increase in public spending in real terms (although it will depend on the number of arrivals). Low income households will also need support in the face of high inflation.
Question 1: Relative to the Bank of England’s planned trajectory for interest rates at the beginning of the year, the Bank should respond to geopolitical events by:
Answer:
Raising interest rates more slowly
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Inflation is still largely driven by energy prices. Since the outlook for energy markets is so uncertain, a wait-and-see approach is more prudent than aggressive rate hikes.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on the UK Economy
Question 3: Relative to tax plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:
Question 2: Relative to the public spending plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:
Question 1: Relative to the Bank of England’s planned trajectory for interest rates at the beginning of the year, the Bank should respond to geopolitical events by:
Surging Inflation in the UK
Question 2: Will the inflation surge of 2021 prove persistent?
Question 1: Which of the following factors is the primary reason for the rise in inflation in 2021?
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