Dawn Holland's picture
Affiliation: 
NIESR
Credentials: 
Consultant on macroeconomic modelling and forecasting

Voting history

Should We Worry About Post-Covid Inflation?

Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?

Answer:
The UK’s exit from the EU
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The risk premium on the exchange rate may widen.

 Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?

Answer:
Inflation will be at the current target rate
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Short-term inflationary pressures may be linked to exchange rate depreciation or higher energy prices, but offset by technological developments, and neither should necessarily pass through to longer-term expectations.

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
No different
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I think it unlikely that the Covid experience will permanently impact potential growth.

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
2% or less
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
While there will be some permanent loss, this will be partly offset by productivity gains from the experience of remote working in many sectors.

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
Small damage
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The distribution is very uneven, and some sectors will continue to suffer significant damage. But overall economic activity is far less restricted than in the spring.

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