Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?
Answer:
Small damage
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The distribution is very uneven, and some sectors will continue to suffer significant damage. But overall economic activity is far less restricted than in the spring.
Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?
Answer:
A small portion of the decline
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Close to half of the decline in output can be attributed to spillovers from the rest of the world. Fiscal support measures have offset at least 2 percentage points of the potential decline in economic activity. Household spending and investment would have been higher absent lockdown measures, but this would have been at least partially offset by additional work lost due to illness, and the impact of voluntary social distancing as the infection rate surged and health services became overwhelmed. Overall, output would likely have declined only somewhat less in the absence of any policy interventions.
Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?
Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The additional childcare burden associated with school closures is likely to have fallen more heavily on women, and may lead to labour force withdrawal or extended periods of unemployment, with a permanent impact on earning potential. This may be partially offset by a change in workplace attitudes towards working from home.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone
Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?
Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance
Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?
Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?
The Economic Cost of School Closures
Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?
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