Dawn Holland's picture
Credentials: 
Expert in macroeconomic modelling and forecasting

Voting history

The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on the UK Economy

Question 3: Relative to tax plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:

Answer:
No change
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 2: Relative to the public spending plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:

Answer:
Increasing public spending in real terms
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The Government's commitment to support local communities that host arrivals from Ukraine will bear a cost, probably requiring an increase in public spending in real terms (although it will depend on the number of arrivals). Low income households will also need support in the face of high inflation.

Question 1: Relative to the Bank of England’s planned trajectory for interest rates at the beginning of the year, the Bank should respond to geopolitical events by:

Answer:
Raising interest rates more slowly
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Inflation is still largely driven by energy prices. Since the outlook for energy markets is so uncertain, a wait-and-see approach is more prudent than aggressive rate hikes.

Surging Inflation in the UK

Question 2: Will the inflation surge of 2021 prove persistent?

Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: Which of the following factors is the primary reason for the rise in inflation in 2021?

Answer:
Supply constraints
Confidence level:
Very confident

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