Dawn Holland's picture
Affiliation: 
NIESR
Credentials: 
Consultant on macroeconomic modelling and forecasting

Voting history

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
2% or less
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
While there will be some permanent loss, this will be partly offset by productivity gains from the experience of remote working in many sectors.

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
Small damage
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The distribution is very uneven, and some sectors will continue to suffer significant damage. But overall economic activity is far less restricted than in the spring.

Question 1: How much of the decline in GDP experienced to date would have been avoided in the absence of any lockdown measures or other policy interventions (such as fiscal support)?

Answer:
A small portion of the decline
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Close to half of the decline in output can be attributed to spillovers from the rest of the world. Fiscal support measures have offset at least 2 percentage points of the potential decline in economic activity. Household spending and investment would have been higher absent lockdown measures, but this would have been at least partially offset by additional work lost due to illness, and the impact of voluntary social distancing as the infection rate surged and health services became overwhelmed. Overall, output would likely have declined only somewhat less in the absence of any policy interventions.

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The additional childcare burden associated with school closures is likely to have fallen more heavily on women, and may lead to labour force withdrawal or extended periods of unemployment, with a permanent impact on earning potential. This may be partially offset by a change in workplace attitudes towards working from home.

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
By a large amount and persistently
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
At all levels of education, it will be difficult to bridge the gap that has developed between children who have had strong homeschooling support, access to home computers and active online schooling, and children who have not had these benefits.

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