Eran Yashiv's picture
Affiliation: 
Tel Aviv University and CfM (LSE)

Voting history

Effects of an embargo on Russian gas

Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
there is wide variation in dependency across EU states so need to reduce forecast relative to Germany

Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?

Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
fiscal policy could compensate for some of the downfall

Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 5pp and 10pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
this is uncharted territory; the German chancellor seems to think the economists estimates of around 3% fall are far too optimistic; so it would be prudent to project a worse scenario