Eran Yashiv's picture
Affiliation: 
Tel Aviv University and CfM (LSE)

Voting history

Euro weakness in 2022

Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?

Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?

Answer:
Real factors
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
War disruptions, gas issues were key driving factors

Effects of an embargo on Russian gas

Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
there is wide variation in dependency across EU states so need to reduce forecast relative to Germany

Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?

Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
fiscal policy could compensate for some of the downfall

Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 5pp and 10pp
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
this is uncharted territory; the German chancellor seems to think the economists estimates of around 3% fall are far too optimistic; so it would be prudent to project a worse scenario