Ethan Ilzetzki's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics

Voting history

Effects of an embargo on Russian gas

Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Very confident

Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Confident

The Impact of the Russian Invasion of Ukraine on the UK Economy

Question 3: Relative to tax plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:

Answer:
No change
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Let inflation increase revenues to support increased public spending. Households who pay most taxes can afford this. Households who can't afford this should be supported with increased public spending (see my response above).

Question 2: Relative to the public spending plans at the beginning of the year, the UK government should respond by:

Answer:
Increasing public spending in real terms
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The cost of living was increasing and living standards were set to decline even before the Russian invasion. This problem has two prongs, one is inflation etching away at households' savings (although also at their mortgages and other debts), the other is that real wages have been stagnant, even well before Covid-19. Redistributive fiscal policy that enhances the social safety net should be supported and increase in real terms. Other investments, such as infrastructure, should focus on productivity growth and increasing real wages in the longer run.

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