Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?
Answer:
By a large amount and persistently
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Schools have been closed for roughly one third of a year. Evidence from summer holidays is clear that closures cause a lot of forgetting, so that the damage to less advantaged pupils without home schooling resources is already roughly equivalent to one year of lost school. This contrasts with higher income pupils in private education, who received numerous hours of online lessons during this time. It is very likely that schools will be closed again in the fall. The government has made a conscious decision that opening (and subsidising!) pubs and restaurants is more important than children's education. These hasty policies risk a second wave that will likely lead to further school closures. The damage to the education of low-income children is irreparable.
Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?
Answer:
Minor
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
While school closures have certainly been damaging to pupils education, and HMG has done very little to mitigate this damage, it is very difficult to estimate the costs to economic growth.
Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?
Answer:
Firms’ productive capacity (e.g. business failures)
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions?
Answer:
The economy will recover within a small number (1-5) of years
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
This depends very much on how long the pandemic will last. If a vacine or very effective treatments were found this year (unlikely), the economy could return to the pre-crisis growth trend very quickly. However, I expect the pandemic, and its economic damage will be with us for at least a year, at which point there will be scarring effects to both the demand and supply side of the economy.
Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?
Answer:
Higher inflation
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
At current rates, the UK should certainly contemplate perpetuities and tax increase are preferable to government spending cuts. I chose inflation more a provocation and a predictive statement than as a recommended policy. (I believe the correct policy is a mix.) I expect inflation will rise in upcoming years from its current neglible levels. If my prediction is wrong, we are truly in a deep deflationary trap and the high levels of public debt are an opportunity to re-think the low inflation targets that have been the fasion of the past several decades.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Economic Cost of School Closures
Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?
Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?
Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?
Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?
Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions?
COVID-19 and UK Public Finances
Question 2: What is the best way to (eventually) reduce public deficits and debt?
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