Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Question 1
The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy. Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The output gap is not an exogenous object. Public policy could potentially affect whether the loss in output is permanent or temporary. My (very casual) conjecture would be that it is still not too late for public policy to prevent the loss of output being permanent. But short of such measures, the loss will eventually be permanent.
To help ensure that advanced country governments pursue responsible fiscal policies, countries should adopt formal rules for limiting structural deficits, which are supported by primary legislation or constitutional reform.
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
I would like to see institutional changes to give less discretion to finance ministries to run deficits. My lack of confidence stems from the fact that I am not sure that a formal rule is the best way to do so. We have seen the limits to the applicability of monetary rules in this recession and a rigid rule might pose problems in unusual circumstances. Fiscal committees might be an alternative way to impose fiscal discipline.
First question:
To help ensure that advanced country governments have sufficient flexibility to respond to future crises, it is important that finance ministries aim for a ratio of public debt to GDP that is substantially less than 60% in normal times.
Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
I do not think 60% is a magic number and in fact might be too high for "normal times", but better a target than none.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Euro Area Deflation and Risk for UK Economy May 2014
Question 1
Do you agree that there is a significant risk of a sustained deflation across the Euro Area in the coming two years?
Prospects for Economic Growth in the UK April 2014
Question 2
Do you agree that, in the wake of the financial crisis, any downward adjustment to the expected average annual long-term growth rate of the UK economy is likely to be by less than 0.25 percentage points?
Question 1
The long period of slow or negative growth might imply that there is a substantial output gap in the UK economy. Do you agree that there is currently a larger output gap than the OBR estimate to the extent that the shortfall in output relative to capacity is 3% or greater?
Responsible long-term fiscal policy (pilot survey)
Second question:
To help ensure that advanced country governments pursue responsible fiscal policies, countries should adopt formal rules for limiting structural deficits, which are supported by primary legislation or constitutional reform.
First question:
To help ensure that advanced country governments have sufficient flexibility to respond to future crises, it is important that finance ministries aim for a ratio of public debt to GDP that is substantially less than 60% in normal times.
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