Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
AI might induce a change in working hours and habits, not necessarily a change in employed workers and possibly a change in the wage paid and productivity (See Erik Brynjolfsson, Danielle Li & Lindsey R. Raymond, NBER WP 31161).
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
Answer:
Other, none of the above, or no response
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
If the ECB sees the depreciation of the euro as another factor affecting inflation through more expensive imports it should intervene even unilaterally. However, such an intervention could weaken exports and if the Chinese markets open up again, that would be detrimental for exports especially for Germany. Moreover with many countries in the Eurozone like Italy and Germany with new governments (political uncertainty) and/or high debt to GDP levels such movement could jeopardise financial stability.
Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?
Answer:
Real factors
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I have answered real factors but I believe its a combination of factors with the war in Ukraine and the fact that Germany and other countries have relied heavily on Russian fossil fuel imports and also the more aggressive monetary policy in the US as being being the most important ones.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Artificial Intelligence and the Economy
Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Euro weakness in 2022
Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?
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