Fabrizio Coricelli's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Siena and Paris School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Effects of an embargo on Russian gas

Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 5pp and 10pp
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Confident

ECB Monetary Policy and Catch-up Inflation

Question 2: Which of the following policies is the most desirable to meet the ECBs objective to achieve its mandate of “price stability” as you understand this term.

Answer:
Hybrid policies
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
In exceptional times (crises) achieving desired rates of inflation may require complementing traditional monetary policy tools with unorthodox policies (incomes policies or direct intervention on controlled prices). In normal times, inflation targeting is likely to work relatively well.

Question 1: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? “The European Central Bank should systematically allow for inflation to exceed its target to compensate for periods of below target inflation.”

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I believe one has to distinguish normal from exceptional times (crisis episodes). Prolonged periods of below-target inflation, as observed after the Global financial crisis, may reveal an instrument problem rather than a target problem. The question is why central banks were unable to boost inflation through massive increase in money supply? In such circumstances, announcing that inflation would be allowed to overshoot the target is unlikely to have effects on inflation expectations.

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