Fabrizio Coricelli's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Siena and Paris School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Euro weakness in 2022

Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?

Answer:
Yes, but only in coordination with other central banks
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
However, highly unrealistic, as the key coordination should be with the FED.

Question 1: What was the main cause for the euro’s decline relative to the US dollar in 2022?

Answer:
Monetary policy differences
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The long run trend of dollar appreciation that started in 2008 is mainly due to the flight to the dollar as safe asset. The specific dinamics in 2022 appears mainly due to differences in monetary policy, both timing and size of policy rate changes. Indeed, aftervreaching its trough, with the tightening in ECB policy in the second half of 2022, the euro has recovered some of the lost ground.

Effects of an embargo on Russian gas

Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 5pp and 10pp
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Confident

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