Fabrizio Coricelli's picture
Affiliation: 
Paris School of Economics
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
No different
Confidence level:
Not confident

Should the ECB Reformulate its Inflation Objective?

Question 3: Which of the following best reflects your opinion on the following statement? “The ECB should explicitly recognize unemployment and/or economic growth as a secondary aim, secondary to its price stability mandate.”

Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Very confident

Question 2: Would you support increasing the ECB’s inflation target to a higher rate of inflation than the current 2% target?

Answer:
Neither support nor oppose
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The key issue in the current and future environment is the whole framework for monetary policy, which should be permanently based on two instruments, policy rates and supply of safe/liquid assets. The issue of the level of the inflation target is unlikely to be crucial.

Question 1: Which of the following best reflects your opinion on the following statement? “The ECB should explicitly state that it will allow inflation to temporarily exceed the 2% target following extended periods of low inflation.”

Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Not clear why past inflation should be relevant for setting current policy, which should be related to current and expected inflation. If below target past inflation is a signal of ineffective monetary policy and thus uncertainty on effects of policy also in the future, abandoning an explicit target may be desirable.

The Eurozone COVID-19 Crisis: EU Policy Options

Question 2: What is the best mechanism to pay for economic support provided by and to EU member states to combat the COVID-19 crisis?

Answer:
Expanded EU budget (with possible borrowing at the EU level)
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Expanded EU budget WITH borrowing at the EU level. This will help tackling the current crisis but also fixing the original sin of the euro (single money with no central budget). However, highly indebted countries may still be exposed to self-fulfilling crises on their existing stock of debt (Italy in primis). ECB could commit to ensure during the emergency and recovery period (say 5 years) a maximum interest rate on all bonds of eurozone countries. Spreads would not increase and weakest countries may be put on a path of sustainable debt and would thus have the possibility to exit their current economic depression.

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