Question 1: Do you agree that subjective well-being measures, or at least some of the subindices from the typical survey measures, are now reliable enough to give useful insights when used in macroeconomic empirical analysis?
Question 3: More generally, do you agree that it is desirable to maintain central bank independence? Again focus on the near future, say next 48 months.
The risks of breakdown of the Eurozone will force the ECB to be less independent. However, beyond the issue of independence, credibility of ECB policies are undermined by the past several years of erratic policy and several commitments to do "whatever it takes." Future policies driven to achieve inflation objectives are likely to have low credibility. This will imply undesirable effects of policies irrespective of the degree of independence of the ECB.
Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?
The key issue for inflation dynamics in the next 48 months is not ECB independence but rather finding an effective monetary policy framework. The Great recession has shown that simple interest rate rules are not effective anchors for inflation (and inflation expectations). Acting on quantities and possibly in coordination with fiscal policy and debt management may be necessary to achieve inflation targets even if this implies de facto less independence. Nevertheless, I believe that the risks of higher inflation are generally underestimated. For the Eurozone inflationary pressures will also arise because of the continuing pressure for the depreciation of the euro.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Happiness and well-being as objectives of macro policy
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Question 1: Do you agree that subjective well-being measures, or at least some of the subindices from the typical survey measures, are now reliable enough to give useful insights when used in macroeconomic empirical analysis?
The Future of Central Bank Independence
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Question 3: More generally, do you agree that it is desirable to maintain central bank independence? Again focus on the near future, say next 48 months.
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Question 1: Do you agree that central bank independence in the Eurozone and the UK will decline over the next 48 months?
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Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?
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German Council of Economic Experts' view of ECB policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that the ECB's monetary policy masks structural problems of member states?
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