An aggravating problem is that, in contrast with the pre-crisis period, the increase of foreign investments corresponding to the huge German current account surplus is not going to sustain investment and consumption in the eurozone countries in difficulties (especially Southern Europe), as these countries have turned from large deficits to sizable surpluses in their current account.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
German current account surpluses
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Question 1: Do you agree that German current account surpluses are a threat to the Eurozone economy?
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