Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?
The key issue for inflation dynamics in the next 48 months is not ECB independence but rather finding an effective monetary policy framework. The Great recession has shown that simple interest rate rules are not effective anchors for inflation (and inflation expectations). Acting on quantities and possibly in coordination with fiscal policy and debt management may be necessary to achieve inflation targets even if this implies de facto less independence. Nevertheless, I believe that the risks of higher inflation are generally underestimated. For the Eurozone inflationary pressures will also arise because of the continuing pressure for the depreciation of the euro.
Lacking expansionary fiscal policy and effective solutions for bad loans in the periphery of the eurozone, loose monetary policy is the second best policy
Question 2:Do you agree that the German government should increase public spending given its persistently large current account surplus and given that it is part of the Eurozone?
Low investments have been a major factor in the German current account surplus, as well as the sharp increase in corporate savings. A generic increase in public spending may not be very effective on these items. Furthermore, the potential appreciation of the euro could adversely affect external demand for all eurozone countries.
An aggravating problem is that, in contrast with the pre-crisis period, the increase of foreign investments corresponding to the huge German current account surplus is not going to sustain investment and consumption in the eurozone countries in difficulties (especially Southern Europe), as these countries have turned from large deficits to sizable surpluses in their current account.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Future of Central Bank Independence
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Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?
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German Council of Economic Experts' view of ECB policy
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Question 2: Do you agree that the ECB's monetary policy masks structural problems of member states?
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Question 1: Do you agree that exceptionally loose monetary policy by the European Central Bank is no longer appropriate?
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German current account surpluses
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Question 2: Do you agree that the German government should increase public spending given its persistently large current account surplus and given that it is part of the Eurozone?
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Question 1: Do you agree that German current account surpluses are a threat to the Eurozone economy?
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