Affiliation: 
University of Oxford
Credentials: 
Associate Professor

Voting history

Should We Worry About Post-Covid Inflation?

Question 2: Which of the following will be the greatest inflationary (or deflationary) force facing the UK economy?

Answer:
Global factors
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The UK is an open economy, therefore what happens in the rest of the world is very important.

 Question 1: Which of the following scenarios is most likely to hold on average for most of the upcoming decade?

Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
I think it is very difficult to predict inflation in 10 years from now.

Post Covid-19 Potential Output in the Eurozone

Question 2: How much lower will the potential growth rate of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
No different
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Once again it depends on the policies played by the European policymakers. There is a lot of uncertainty about them, but if they will play the right policies growth rate can be back to the "normal" level.

Question 1: How much lower will the potential level of GDP in the Eurozone in 2025 be due to Covid-19 relative to pre-Covid forecasts?

 

Answer:
No different
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
It is not the shock that permanently decreases GDP, but the policies can. If Europe will play the right policies, I doubt that there will be a big drop in potential output.

Lockdowns and UK Economic Performance

Question 2: How much will the new lockdown measures introduced on Thursday November 5 hurt UK economic activity this year relative to a counterfactual with the milder measures adopted over the summer?

Answer:
Large damage
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The second lockdown has been done in a different situation than the first. There is less much less uncertainty: we know that the Covid-19 virus hits disproportionally more the older adults than the young. For this reason, I would think that a considerable chunk of the population would keep consuming non-tradable goods in the absence of a lockdown.

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