Question 2: What impact has the sequence of fiscal rules adopted in the UK since 1997 had on the conduct of fiscal policy in the UK?
Answer:
Harmed
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The harm due to lower growth caused by austerity is greater than its potential benefits in terms of lower inflation. Inflation has been low for a long period and is only now rearing its head and the UK's debt to GDP ratio is, in my view, still far from raising concerns around debt sustainability.
Question 1: What impact has the sequence of fiscal rules adopted in the UK since 1997 had on the level of UK public debt?
Answer:
Reduced
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Given the same shocks and political situation, but assuming that there were no fiscal rules in place, it is reasonable to presume that the debt would have been higher, as Yared (2019) and the evidence from countries who implemented fiscal rules suggest. I am not particularly confident of this answer, because this is a very difficult counterfactual to conceptualise and I think there probably is endogeneity between the choice to adhere to fiscal rules and other policy responses to the conjucture.
Question 2: Which of the following policies is the most desirable to meet the ECBs objective to achieve its mandate of “price stability” as you understand this term.
Answer:
Average inflation targeting
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 1: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? “The European Central Bank should systematically allow for inflation to exceed its target to compensate for periods of below target inflation.”
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Post-Covid Fiscal Rules for the UK
Question 2: What impact has the sequence of fiscal rules adopted in the UK since 1997 had on the conduct of fiscal policy in the UK?
Question 1: What impact has the sequence of fiscal rules adopted in the UK since 1997 had on the level of UK public debt?
ECB Monetary Policy and Catch-up Inflation
Question 2: Which of the following policies is the most desirable to meet the ECBs objective to achieve its mandate of “price stability” as you understand this term.
Question 1: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? “The European Central Bank should systematically allow for inflation to exceed its target to compensate for periods of below target inflation.”
Fiscal Rules in the European Monetary Union
Proposition 1: The existing fiscal rules for European Monetary Union members require revision.
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