Francesca Monti's picture
Affiliation: 
Kings College London

Voting history

Post-Covid Fiscal Rules for the UK

Question 2: What impact has the sequence of fiscal rules adopted in the UK since 1997 had on the conduct of fiscal policy in the UK?

Answer:
Harmed
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The harm due to lower growth caused by austerity is greater than its potential benefits in terms of lower inflation. Inflation has been low for a long period and is only now rearing its head and the UK's debt to GDP ratio is, in my view, still far from raising concerns around debt sustainability.

Question 1:  What impact has the sequence of fiscal rules adopted in the UK since 1997 had on the level of UK public debt? 

Answer:
Reduced
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
Given the same shocks and political situation, but assuming that there were no fiscal rules in place, it is reasonable to presume that the debt would have been higher, as Yared (2019) and the evidence from countries who implemented fiscal rules suggest. I am not particularly confident of this answer, because this is a very difficult counterfactual to conceptualise and I think there probably is endogeneity between the choice to adhere to fiscal rules and other policy responses to the conjucture.

ECB Monetary Policy and Catch-up Inflation

Question 2: Which of the following policies is the most desirable to meet the ECBs objective to achieve its mandate of “price stability” as you understand this term.

Answer:
Average inflation targeting
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: To what extent do you agree with the following statement? “The European Central Bank should systematically allow for inflation to exceed its target to compensate for periods of below target inflation.”

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Very confident

Fiscal Rules in the European Monetary Union

Proposition 1: The existing fiscal rules for European Monetary Union members require revision.

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

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