Francesca Monti's picture
Affiliation: 
Kings College London

Voting history

Effects of an embargo on Russian gas

Question 3: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce EU GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Not confident

Question 2: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), if the government offset the costs with a well-targeted fiscal policy?

Answer:
Between 1pp and 3pp
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: By how much would an immediate EU-wide import ban on Russian gas reduce German GDP growth per annum in 2022-3, in percentage points (pp), absent other policies?

Answer:
Between 3pp and 5pp
Confidence level:
Confident

Surging Inflation in the UK

Question 2: Will the inflation surge of 2021 prove persistent?

Answer:
Uncertain or no opinion
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
I don't think that this inflation is "transitory" in the sense that it will die out by itself without policy action. It is not persistent either, because monetary policymakers however have the tools to bring inflation down, but at the cost of a potentially very painful slowdown for the economy.

Question 1: Which of the following factors is the primary reason for the rise in inflation in 2021?

Answer:
Supply constraints
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
While stimulative fiscal policy and loose monetary policy (at least in historical terms) are certainly playing a role in driving demand and consequently inflation, supply-side constraints are more relevant, for post-Brexit UK in particular.

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