Giancarlo Corsetti's picture
Affiliation: 
University of Cambridge
Credentials: 
Professor of macroeconomics

Voting history

The Future of Central Bank Independence

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Question 3: More generally, do you agree that it is desirable to maintain central bank independence? Again focus on the near future, say next 48 months.

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Answer:
Strongly agree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
As Willem Buiter would say (sorry Willem), relative to what?

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Question 2: Do you agree that the traditional argument that less central bank independence leads to higher inflation will (still) be relevant over the next 48 months in Western economies?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
There are better ways to raise inflation expectations that do not require the central bank to become less independent.

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Question 1: Do you agree that central bank independence in the Eurozone and the UK will decline over the next 48 months?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Especially after the US elections, but also by virtue of the US cyclical improvement, there are widespread expectations of a change in global macroeconomic conditions. These changes will (and already) creating currency and interest rate adjustment and volatility. If inflation picks up in the US, a widespread objection to central bank 'independence' --- its alleged inability to move inflation expectations substantially --- will become less of an issue in some area of the world. It may be wise, nonetheless, to reconsider carefully the monetary framework. Many factors may keep full-employment real rates low or negative in the foreseeable future. Moreover, there will be challenges---as clearly pointed out by Stanley Fisher among others. Central Bank involvement in financial stability and bank supervision will however require institutional development, especially in Europe. This will unavoidably raise political issues. In Europe, the persistent fragmentation in economic and financial conditions and a poor macroeconomic stance in the euro area will unavoidably raise controversies around monetary stabilisation decisions.

The Importance of Elections for UK Economic Activity

Question 2: Do you agree that the outcome of the general election will have non-trivial consequences for aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP)?

Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
As a foreign observer, I answer this question drawing on the international experience. The answer is yes, and it will crucially depend on whether the new government, regardless of their tough or mild words during the electoral campaign, will exert the required realistic approach, based on sound empirical evidence. The UK has solid institutions providing important inputs to decision making. It would be useful to have a pledge, by all candidates, that they will make sure proper weight is given to their analyses.

Question 1: Do you agree that the austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK?

Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
A key achievement of the UK economic policy in the aftermath of the crisis has been the insulation of the country from the most damaging type of financial crisis---the loss of market confidence on “sovereign signature”. The UK was at the center of the financial storm in 2007-2009. The Bank of England intervened massively---showing markets its determination in guaranteeing orderly conditions in UK financial markets. The fall in the exchange rate made sure that all the increase in risk of UK denominated assets was reflected upfront in their price in international portfolios. In this context, the announcement (without the implementation) of tough fiscal measures had the consequence of further reassuring investors---while de facto automatic stabilizers were working and opening a large current account deficit. Words were tough, deeds were OK. The problem in the UK, like elsewhere, was that initially policymakers operated on expectations of a much shorter crisis. So talking (again just talking) tough measures two-three years down the line seemed reasonable. The crisis turned out to be much longer (alas, wishful ignorance, as, a part from the Japanese experience, Andre Meier at the IMF had already shown the type of macro outlook to expect). So over the years, government had the problem of maintaining promises that ex post were not appropriate. To put it simply. There is a unfinished, dangerous deleveraging process, which is particularly difficult in the Eurozone. The UK so far has surfed the crisis by enjoying inflow of physical and human capital. It is now facing the aftershock of a severe European slowdown. Cash-generating austerity measures are of no use in these circumstances. Rigorous fiscal policy needs to focus on sustainability, which is not only health care and pension but also infrastructure and services. On balance, it would have been useful to sustain some spending programme, with an eye on its medium to long-run effect.

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