Gianluca Benigno's picture
Affiliation: 
London School of Economics
Credentials: 
Associate Professor in Economics

Voting history

Labour Markets and Monetary Policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The signs of wage inflation are not so worrying to demand an immediate response from a monetary policy point of view. There is room to wait to be certain that the real wage developments are indeed consistent. The problem in shifting the policy stance (more than the increasing of 0.25% in the nominal interest rate per se) is that it has lead to an appreciation of the British pound which eventually will reduce CPI inflation and limit the needed rebalancing of the UK economy. Compared to about 1 year ago the USD/GBP exchange rate has appreciated around 16%. Monetary policy is not neutral with respect to productivity developments as I discuss in a recent vox column (https://voxeu.org/article/keynesian-model-long-run-growth) and in a small open economy this link is further amplified by exchange rate changes. The approach highlighted in the vox column requires a different way of thinking about the link between cyclical fluctuations and trend. This approach would then suggest that waiting for a sustained pickup in business investment that would result in higher productivity growth would minimize the risk of a policy mistake and could have long lasting effect. Moreover trying to mimic the normalization of monetary policy as in the US economy does not keep into account a key difference in terms of fiscal stances (i.e. expansionary in the US, neutral at best in the UK). If anything with uncertainty related to Brexit, monetary policy should tolerate inflationary pressure along with a more depreciated exchange rate. Achieving that required a change in the stance of monetary policy.

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Question 1: Do you agree that a strong labour market is a good indicator of building inflationary pressure?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The recent experience in the US and the UK seems to contradict this statement. Indeed both countries have experienced a substantial decline in unemployment (if that is the metric for a strong labour market) from its peak without a significant increase in wage inflation and as such inflationary pressure have been the result of exchange rate fluctuations and commodity price fluctuations (especially for the UK economy which is a small open economy). In my opinion the main reason, from a cyclical point of view, is related to low productivity growth caused by a decline in business investment in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. There are then other forces secular in nature that are contributing in weakening the link between falling unemployment rates ad increase in inflation: mainly the decline in labour share of income and still deflationary forces coming from globalization.

Bitcoin and the City

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Question 2: Do you agree that the regulatory oversight of cryptocurrencies needs to be increased?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident

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Question 1: Do you agree that cryptocurrencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or can be expected to become a threat in the next couple of years?

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Answer:
Neither agree nor disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
it is hard to say. it seems to me that they could become a way to transfer money among agents and as such they could affect the standard intermediation role of the banking system. in that sense their increasing use could have implications for the financial system.

House Prices and the UK economy

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Question 2: Do you agree that a more widespread weakening of the UK housing market will slow UK GDP growth significantly?

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Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
as I wrote earlier the economy before the brexit vote needed a rebalancing from consumption towards productive investment and exports.. A correction in house price and a depreciation of the currency are good in this sense.

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