Question 1: Do you agree that the austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK?
Answer:
Disagree
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
it is hard to disentangle the effects of an individual policy measure. The coalition government run a fiscal contraction in 2010 and 2011 and then reduced the pace of the fiscal contraction from 2012. The reduction in the pace of the contraction, along with expansionary monetary policy and international factors that have kept interest rates low in the UK, could explain the recent recovery of the UK economy and its better relative performance.
Question 2: Do you agree that the Bank's proposal to release the policy decision, MPC minutes and (once a quarter) the Inflation Report all at the same time justifies a change in the structure of MPC meetings from two consecutive days to a process in which in the MPC meetings are spread out over seven days?
Spreading the MPC meeting over seven days seem to me quite a lot and it is likely to make the minutes outdated when new information comes in during that period.
Question 1: Do you agree that the simultaneous release of the policy decision, the enhanced minutes (including the voting record) of the MPC meeting and (in the relevant months) the release of the Inflation Report will facilitate inference on the likely stance of monetary policy?
Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?
Given the trajectory of Greek public debt, renegotiation of the bailout agreement seems to me a sensible option. The risk is to underestimate the financial consequences for the Euro of a unilateral decision of a country to exit the system. While the cost of this decision are higher from a Greek perspective, financial linkages among Eurozone countries could amplify its effect and lead to financial turmoil.
Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?
There might be contagion coming from the outcome of the Greek election but one aspect to keep into account is what the European Central Bank will do at the meeting of the 22nd of January just before the outcome of the election. An aggressive QE program could limit the escalation in spreads.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
The Importance of Elections for UK Economic Activity
Question 1: Do you agree that the austerity policies of the coalition government have had a positive effect on aggregate economic activity (employment and GDP) in the UK?
Transparency and the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy following the Warsh Review at the Bank of England
Greece’s elections and the future of the Eurozone
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Question 2: Do you agree that refusal of the core EU countries to a renegotiation of the Greek bailout agreements would carry serious risks for the economic well-being of the Eurozone?
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Question 1: Do you agree that a Syriza victory on 25 January would lead to a significant or sustained escalation in spreads for other peripheral Eurozone countries?
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