Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Answer:
ECB policy interest rates will be too low in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?
Answer:
The MRO rate will peak above 3.5%.
Confidence level:
Confident
Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?
Answer:
Likely
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Much of this depends on what happens in the Ukraine. If Russia prevents grain exports or destroys the grain harvest, food prices could go up a lot more and drive up headline inflation again.
Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
The ECB's problem is not the exchange rate. It is the uncertainty about its independence, or, about whether it will be able to fend off political pressures from the member governments.
Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023
Question 3: Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?
Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?
Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?
Euro weakness in 2022
Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
Labour Markets and Monetary Policy
======================================================================
Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?
======================================================================
Pages