Jürgen von Hagen's picture
Affiliation: 
Universität Bonn
Credentials: 
Professor of Economics

Voting history

Prospects for Euro Area Inflation in 2023

Question 3:  Under its current policy trajectory, with rates peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is most likely?

Answer:
ECB policy interest rates will be too low in 2023.
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 2: Relative to market forecasts of the ECB’s MRO rate peaking at 3.5%, which of the following is more likely during 2023?

Answer:
The MRO rate will peak above 3.5%.
Confidence level:
Confident

Question 1: How likely is it that peak headline euro area inflation is behind us?

Answer:
Likely
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Much of this depends on what happens in the Ukraine. If Russia prevents grain exports or destroys the grain harvest, food prices could go up a lot more and drive up headline inflation again.

Euro weakness in 2022

Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?

Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Extremely confident
Comment:
The ECB's problem is not the exchange rate. It is the uncertainty about its independence, or, about whether it will be able to fend off political pressures from the member governments.

Labour Markets and Monetary Policy

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Question 2: Do you agree that, in a period of great uncertainty and after a prolonged period of weak real wage growth, monetary policy makers can afford to wait for greater certainty about real wage developments and building inflationary pressure before raising interest rates?

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Answer:
Agree
Confidence level:
Confident

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