Jagjit Chadha's picture
Affiliation: 
National Institute of Economic and Social Research
Credentials: 
Professor of economics

Voting history

The Economic Cost of School Closures

Question 3: To what extent will school closures increase gender inequality due to unequal gender distribution of the burden of school closures?

Answer:
No opinion
Confidence level:
Not confident at all

Question 2: To what extent will school closures increase inequality in human capital development?

Answer:
To a small degree but persistently
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
The access to good educational support on-line and to parental guidance is not equally distributed in the UK. To the extent that physical presence at good schools provides an opportunity to address equality, its absence may act to re-enforce some of the loss of incomes and opportunities that this crisis is creating for those in low income jobs, which are more likely to be at risk at this time.

Question 1:What damage will school closures have on economic growth over a 10-15 year horizon?

Answer:
Minor
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The impact on medium to long run economic growth will obviously depend on the scale and length of school closures. But also on the extent to which on-line provision can provide a good substitute for an extended period. I am worried about the loss of extra-curricular and sport, which may be just as important to long run well being as classroom teaching.

Will COVID-19 Cause Permanent Damage to the UK Economy?

Question 2: Which aspect of the economy poses the greatest risk for a slow recovery?

Answer:
Firms’ productive capacity (e.g. business failures)
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
Firm births (and deaths) are critical to the re-orientation to the "new economy". They will provide the jobs for those moving between sectors and those joining the labour market. The other factors are also important, as is the provision of key public goods that will complement positive firm dynamics and the availability of finance.

Question 1: How quickly will the economy rebound (e.g. to the pre-pandemic trend) once the COVID-19 pandemic has been contained and absent major policy interventions? 

Answer:
The economy will rapidly return to its pre-crisis growth trend, but there will be a permanent effect on the level of GDP
Confidence level:
Not confident
Comment:
The central case of a rapid return once lockdowns are eased across the world is feasible but will require there to be no subsequent peaks in the rate of infections and Covid-related deaths. Even in this case and to limit infections social distancing will to remain in place until a virus is found or herd immunity is achieved. This means that we cannot return to the way we did things particularly in industries where face to face interactions are critical. This means that some significant changes in our practices will be needed and some permanent loss of activity will result. But it also means that I cannot be terribly certain about any path I pick.

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