Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Confident
Comment:
it may change the composition of employment but I see no reason why it will over the long run lead to pools of unemployment, unless we respond badly with the requirements for skills in the new-new economy - which I cannot rule out!
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Answer:
Remain unchanged
Confidence level:
Not confident at all
Comment:
it is another innovatation on the long road of economic progress. it will throw open opportunities and problems in equal measure. The ultimate outcome in terms of growth and its distribution will depend on which policies are adopted, how monopoly power is challenged and what new ideas are ultimately released. As we do not yet know, I cannot say what the impact will be with any degree of certainty.
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Answer:
N/A or Other
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
We need a consistent and stable set of policy initatives that live beyond the Parliamentary cycle. This would involve institutions that plan and deliver over the long run and for the whole country. A foundational step would be to create a consensus for policies that will involve greater and better directed levels of public investment, alongside a more stable environment for business investment in each sector and region, as well as devolved nations. Such an approach would represent a fundamental break with the incremental and market-dominance approaches of the past 25 years.
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Answer:
N/A or Other
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
Given that potential output is a latent variable and therefore almost impossible to guage, I find it practically unreasonable to pin down any one factor with any degree of uncertainty. Rather than the none of the above maxim (NOTA), I would be inclined to the all of the above (AOTA). The underperformance of the UK economy relative to its historical trend and against its main trading partners represents an historic and devastating pronouncement on policy choices over the past quarter of a century. In part potential has been impaired but so has performance relative to that potential.
Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
Answer:
No
Confidence level:
Very confident
Comment:
The ECB, as any other inflation-targeting central bank, cannot target the exchange rate as well as inflation. It must think about bringing domestically generated inflation back to a level consistent with price stability with a consistent interest rate strategy.
The CFM surveys informs the public about the views held by prominent economists based in Europe on important macroeconomic and public policy questions. Some surveys focus specifically on the UK economy (as the CFM is a UK research centre), but surveys can in principle focus on any macroeconomic question for any region. The surveys shed light on the extent to which there is agreement or disagreement among these experts. An important motivation for the survey is to give a more comprehensive overview of the beliefs held by economists and in particular to include the views of those economists whose opinions are not frequently heard in public debates.
Questions mainly focus on macroeconomic and public policy topics. Although there are some questions that focus specifically on the UK economy, the setup of the survey is much broader and considers questions related to other countries/regions and also considers questions not tied to a specific economy.
The surveys are done in collaboration with the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR).
Artificial Intelligence and the Economy
Question 2: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on unemployment in high income countries over the upcoming decade?
Question 1: What will be the implications of recent developments in AI on global economic growth, as they mature over the upcoming decade?
Causes for Weak Long-Run UK Growth
Question 2: Which of the following policies would do the most to boost UK GDP in the medium term (over the next decade)?
Question 1: Which of the following will be the most important constraint on UK potential output in 2023, relative to its pre-2019 trend?
Euro weakness in 2022
Question 2: Should the ECB respond to movements in the euro-dollar exchange rate of the nature observed in 2022?
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